"I've Seen How This Goes": Characterizing Diversity via Progressive Conditional Surprise

Post-trained language models produce less varied outputs than their base counterparts. This output diversity collapse undermines inference-time scaling methods that rely on varied samples, and risks homogenizing model outputs on creative and value-laden tasks. Prior work attributes collapse to specific post-training methods, without separating the role of training data composition from the method, or the generation format from the model weights. We trace output diversity through three parallel post-training lineages of Olmo 3, Think (chain-of-thought distillation), Instruct (broad multi-source data), and RL-Zero, across 15 tasks and four text diversity metrics. We find that the location of collapse co-varies with data composition: the Think lineage loses most semantic diversity at supervised fine-tuning, and the effect of DPO is larger in Instruct than in Think. Suppressing chain-of-thought reasoning at inference in Think models drops accuracy on hard tasks, yet leaves answer-level diversity unchanged, showing that the collapse is embedded in the model weights by training data, not imposed by the generation format. Decomposing diversity loss on six verifiable tasks into a quality-control component (removal of incorrect outputs) and a residual component (genuine narrowing among correct outputs) reveals that the split is task-dependent, and Think models retain more correct-answer diversity than Instruct despite collapsing more in aggregate. Our results indicate that diversity collapse is determined during training by data composition and cannot be addressed at inference time alone.

Creative AI systems are typically evaluated at the level of individual utility, yet creative outputs are consumed in populations: an idea loses value when many others produce similar ones. This creates an evaluation blind spot, as AI can improve individual outputs while increasing population-level crowding. We introduce a human-relative framework for benchmarking AI-induced human diversity collapse without requiring human-AI interaction data, providing an ex ante protocol to estimate crowding risk from model-only generations and matched unaided human baselines. By modeling ideas as congestible resources, we show that source-level crowding is identifiable from within-distribution comparisons, yielding an excess-crowding coefficient $Δ$ and a human-relative diversity ratio $ρ$. We show that $ρ\ge1$ is the no-excess-crowding parity condition and connect $Δ$ to an adoption game with exposure-dependent redundancy costs. Across short stories, marketing slogans, and alternative-uses tasks, three frontier LLMs fall below parity across crowding kernels. Estimates stabilize with feasible model-only sample sizes. Importantly, generation-protocol variants show that crowding can be reduced through targeted design, making diversity collapse an actionable, development-time evaluation target for population-aware creative AI.

While post-training improves the capabilities of large language models (LLMs), it generally lowers their output diversity and creativity, negatively impacting tasks that explicitly require creativity (e.g., story generation) as well as those that require it implicitly, e.g., reinforcement learning (RL). We instead propose CreativeInstruct, a scalable instruction-tuning method that teaches LLMs to balance creative, base-model-like generations with the quality of post-trained models, by learning to inject special [StartCreativity] spans that bias generation toward creativity. Furthermore, we introduce a structural diversity metric based on graph edit distance, which captures narrative level variation missed by purely lexical and semantic metrics. On narrative generation, CreativeInstruct matches or exceeds the diversity of both multi-model baselines and distilled variants of their outputs, without sacrificing quality or requiring multiple models at inference time. These results are mirrored in our human evaluation, where we find that annotators rate CreativeInstruct generations as more creative than the post-trained LLMs' generations in 70.3% of cases. We also show the benefits of creative models as a substrate for RL: GRPO applied to a CreativeInstruct checkpoint improves by ~4% on AMC and ~5% points on MATH over the same training applied to the post-trained checkpoint.