Beyond One-shot: AI Agents for Learning in Field Experiments

A/B testing remains the standard for rolling out new features in the technology industry. Each experiment, however, consumes real traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of wall-clock time. Can AI agents---conditioned on behavioral profiles and contextual descriptions of the intervention---simulate outcomes accurately enough to vet candidate treatments before committing live traffic? We formalize this question as a \emph{Simulated Randomized Controlled Trial} (S-RCT) and derive a two-layer error decomposition that separates agent approximation error from subsampling error, enabling targeted improvements to each. The framework is agent-agnostic: any behavioral model---from a fine-tuned specialist to a general-purpose foundation model---can serve as the simulation engine. Validated on 67 historical marketing A/B tests, a baseline S-RCT using an off-the-shelf foundation model captures directional signal (sign overlap 0.70) but systematically overshoots effect magnitudes. A two-phase pre-period calibration protocol reduces the squared prediction error (after removing irreducible measurement noise) by ${\sim}77\times$; a within-subject design---where each agent is exposed to both arms---reduces standard errors by ${\sim}2.4\times$. We discuss limitations of the current approach and identify applications where experimenters stand to benefit from agentic signals.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to take actions in the real world and support human decision-making, yet most agents rely on parametric knowledge, fixed post-training data, retrieval, or search. This paradigm breaks down in novel domains and for sophisticated queries that cannot be answered from prior knowledge alone. Knowing the laws of physics, for instance, does not by itself enable LLMs to answer queries or complete long-horizon tasks in a complex physical system. To address this, we introduce Hierarchical Experimentalist Agents (HExA), an in-context self-improvement framework to learn from active experimentation. HExA iteratively designs and refines query-relevant experiments, learns a reusable library of composable skills from experience, and integrates experimental evidence to answer queries or take actions. HExA is training-free, compatible with any black-box model, and does not require external supervision, oracles, or offline data. To evaluate active experimentation, we introduce Interphyre, a tool-calling benchmark built on the PHYRE 2D procedural physics environment, where agents propose interventions and test hypotheses through simulation APIs. Experiments show that current LLM agents struggle in these settings, especially on the hardest levels of Interphyre. Claude Sonnet 4.6 achieves only 2% success, while HExA improves the same model to up to 77% success. HExA also improves open-weight models and outperforms agentic baselines such as ReAct and Reflexion. Moreover, using only skills learned from easier levels and transferred without active experimentation, HExA achieves 44% success, demonstrating the reusability and generalization of its learned skills. Overall, HExA shows that learning through active experimentation can help agents discover useful knowledge, acquire reusable skills, and make efficient progress on novel long-horizon tasks.

The proliferation of large language models (LLMs) and autonomous AI agents has given rise to a rapidly growing methodological paradigm: "in silico" behavioral experiments. Originally conceived as a way to use AI agents as proxies for human participants in studies of cognition, decision-making, and social dynamics, this approach has taken on new significance -- as AI agents increasingly negotiate, transact, and make consequential decisions on behalf of people and organizations, understanding their behavior has become a research priority in its own right. While these experiments with AI agents offer unprecedented advantages in terms of scalability, cost efficiency, and experimental control, they also inherit, and in some cases amplify, methodological vulnerabilities that have long plagued human subjects research. To address these issues, this paper argues that preregistration practices -- central to improving the credibility of human subjects experiments -- should now be extended to experiments with AI agents. We systematically catalog the researcher degrees of freedom that experiments with AI agents introduce -- model selection, prompt wording, settings, and outcome-contingent redesign, for example -- and show how the low cost of iteration and lack of reporting norms make these choices both easy to exploit and difficult to detect. We propose a preregistration template tailored to experiments with AI agents and call on conferences, journals, and funding agencies to make preregistration standard practice for this emerging research paradigm.