Beyond One-shot: AI Agents for Learning in Field Experiments

A/B testing remains the standard for rolling out new features in the technology industry. Each experiment, however, consumes real traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of wall-clock time. Can AI agents---conditioned on behavioral profiles and contextual descriptions of the intervention---simulate outcomes accurately enough to vet candidate treatments before committing live traffic? We formalize this question as a \emph{Simulated Randomized Controlled Trial} (S-RCT) and derive a two-layer error decomposition that separates agent approximation error from subsampling error, enabling targeted improvements to each. The framework is agent-agnostic: any behavioral model---from a fine-tuned specialist to a general-purpose foundation model---can serve as the simulation engine. Validated on 67 historical marketing A/B tests, a baseline S-RCT using an off-the-shelf foundation model captures directional signal (sign overlap 0.70) but systematically overshoots effect magnitudes. A two-phase pre-period calibration protocol reduces the squared prediction error (after removing irreducible measurement noise) by ${\sim}77\times$; a within-subject design---where each agent is exposed to both arms---reduces standard errors by ${\sim}2.4\times$. We discuss limitations of the current approach and identify applications where experimenters stand to benefit from agentic signals.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to take actions in the real world and support human decision-making, yet most agents rely on parametric knowledge, fixed post-training data, retrieval, or search. This paradigm breaks down in novel domains and for sophisticated queries that cannot be answered from prior knowledge alone. Knowing the laws of physics, for instance, does not by itself enable LLMs to answer queries or complete long-horizon tasks in a complex physical system. To address this, we introduce Hierarchical Experimentalist Agents (HExA), an in-context self-improvement framework to learn from active experimentation. HExA iteratively designs and refines query-relevant experiments, learns a reusable library of composable skills from experience, and integrates experimental evidence to answer queries or take actions. HExA is training-free, compatible with any black-box model, and does not require external supervision, oracles, or offline data. To evaluate active experimentation, we introduce Interphyre, a tool-calling benchmark built on the PHYRE 2D procedural physics environment, where agents propose interventions and test hypotheses through simulation APIs. Experiments show that current LLM agents struggle in these settings, especially on the hardest levels of Interphyre. Claude Sonnet 4.6 achieves only 2% success, while HExA improves the same model to up to 77% success. HExA also improves open-weight models and outperforms agentic baselines such as ReAct and Reflexion. Moreover, using only skills learned from easier levels and transferred without active experimentation, HExA achieves 44% success, demonstrating the reusability and generalization of its learned skills. Overall, HExA shows that learning through active experimentation can help agents discover useful knowledge, acquire reusable skills, and make efficient progress on novel long-horizon tasks.

A/B testing requires large sample sizes, long timelines, and significant costs. When auxiliary predictions of experimental outcomes are available from machine learning models, uncertain prediction quality precludes replacing human experiments entirely, yet these predictions may still contain useful signal. We propose a principled framework for learning-augmented hypothesis testing that leverages predictions of unknown quality to reduce sample sizes while maintaining statistical validity. Predictions naturally vary in granularity, from coarse aggregate signals to fine-grained individual-level estimates, and our framework addresses both ends of this spectrum: (1) for population-level directional predictions, where only a binary signal on the treatment effect sign is available, we use an asymmetric test and prove consistency and robustness bounds within the learning-augmented algorithms paradigm; (2) for individual-level predictions, we introduce Generalized PPI++ (GPPI), extending Prediction-Powered Inference to handle nonlinear prediction errors through higher-dimensional transformations. Both methods benefit from accurate predictions while remaining robust to inaccurate or adversarial ones. We validate our framework using persona-based LLM simulations, where AI agents equipped with user personas predict individual behavior, as a natural prediction source spanning both granularity levels. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods, combined with persona-based predictions, substantially reduce experimental costs while preserving rigorous statistical validity.