Building Better Activation Oracles

Activation Oracles (AOs) are language models trained to answer natural-language questions about another model's internal activations. They offer a flexible interface for reading hidden information from model states, especially when relevant information is internally represented but absent or incomplete in visible behavior. However, AOs are themselves learned systems: their answers are shaped by training data, objectives, and learned reporting behavior, rather than being neutral readouts of represented information. We study this in a controlled Taboo Word Guessing setting, where subject models are fine-tuned to internally use a hidden concept while avoiding direct disclosure. Contrary to the expectation that an AO trained on such a subject becomes a specialist reader, we find that fine-tuned AOs can become concept-specific anti-readers: they selectively fail to recover the concept persistently present during their own training. This failure is not simply explained by absence of the concept from the subject or oracle representations: the target remains decodable inside the oracle, while LogitLens and layer-ablation analyses indicate that the failure arises in the AO readout pathway. Our results show that behavioral leakage, representation-level decodability, and AO-verbalizability can come apart, raising a reliability concern for learned interpretability interfaces.

Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of such activation oracles is so far understudied. Here, we investigate 6 different methods for estimating the confidence of activation oracles and evaluate how well-calibrated their confidence scores are. Our experiments on 6,000 samples per oracle (varying verbalizer and context prompts) reveal that bootstrap mode frequency is the best-calibrated method among those tested (ECE 5.7% vs. 25.5% for the answer-word log-probability on Qwen3-8B; 10.3% vs. 13.1% on Qwen3.6-27B), and that the log-prob baseline can serve as a fast triage signal at a fraction of the cost. Code and the patched trainer are available at https://github.com/federicotorrielli/probabilistic_activation_oracles.

Interpretability methods for neural network activations span a wide cost spectrum, from cheap, training-free techniques (such as linear probes, PCA, SVD) to more expensive training-based ones (such as SAEs and activation oracles). Training-based methods are typically more powerful, in part because they leverage large activation datasets during training. This raises a natural question - do they actually surface insights that go beyond what is recoverable from the training dataset itself? To address this, we equip an LLM agent with a vector database of activations paired with their textual contexts, along with tools for manipulating activations - projecting out directions in latent space, computing activation differences and averages. The agent iteratively queries the database, forms hypotheses from the retrieved samples, and validates them by constructing linear probes. We call this method HARP, for Hypothesis-driven Agentic Retrieval and Probing. Despite not involving any training, HARP outperforms both activation oracles and SAE-based agents on concept discovery, concept detection, model steering, and secret elicitation. The training-free design also makes HARP substantially cheaper and more flexible: new datasets can be indexed on demand whenever existing ones prove insufficient. More broadly, our results suggest that current training-based methods do not yet extract insights beyond their training data, and motivate benchmarks that explicitly require interpretability methods to demonstrate such insights. We release our code at https://github.com/SriramB-98/HARP