Confidence and Calibration of Activation Oracles for Reliable Interpretation of Language Model Internals

Activation Oracles (AOs) are promising methods for interpreting residual stream activations. However, current AOs face important issues, such as hallucinations and vagueness. Additionally, text-inversion confounds make them hard to evaluate. To this end, we improve the Activation Oracle (AO) training regime in four ways: training on on-policy rollouts, improving the conversational dataset, feeding more layers and an improvement to the injection formula. The capability improvements are marginal, but quality of life improvements are quite substantial. In addition, we open source the first comprehensive evaluation suite for AO quality, which we call AObench. Overall, we hope that our work sets a foundation that helps improve AOs and other models in the paradigm of scalable, end-to-end interpretability.

As language models improve and become increasingly deployed to solve a variety of tasks, trustworthiness becomes essential. Calibration is a good proxy for trust: well-calibrated confidence estimates help inform the risk versus reward tradeoff when trusting a specific model output. Unfortunately, even as models improve, they remain poorly calibrated, often biasing towards overconfidence. Additionally, calibration can be gamed: a policy that always predicts the base rate is perfectly calibrated, but completely uninformative. To resolve this, we develop a new metric, expected utility renormalized by the oracle (EURO), that balances calibration and informativeness. We also propose a general-purpose activation-based confidence, utility, and trust estimation protocol (ACUTE) to appropriately adjudicate uncertainty. The ACUTE protocol provides flexible, sample-efficient, and compute-efficient confidence estimators for 3 tasks including multiple choice question answering, tool-calling, and scientific document summarization across 6 models from 4 model families. ACUTE outperforms strong baselines on EURO, while maintaining low calibration error. Taken together, our work shows that equipping LLMs with the ACUTE protocol can improve calibration, utility, and trustworthiness in numerous settings.

Activation Oracles (AOs) are language models trained to answer natural-language questions about another model's internal activations. They offer a flexible interface for reading hidden information from model states, especially when relevant information is internally represented but absent or incomplete in visible behavior. However, AOs are themselves learned systems: their answers are shaped by training data, objectives, and learned reporting behavior, rather than being neutral readouts of represented information. We study this in a controlled Taboo Word Guessing setting, where subject models are fine-tuned to internally use a hidden concept while avoiding direct disclosure. Contrary to the expectation that an AO trained on such a subject becomes a specialist reader, we find that fine-tuned AOs can become concept-specific anti-readers: they selectively fail to recover the concept persistently present during their own training. This failure is not simply explained by absence of the concept from the subject or oracle representations: the target remains decodable inside the oracle, while LogitLens and layer-ablation analyses indicate that the failure arises in the AO readout pathway. Our results show that behavioral leakage, representation-level decodability, and AO-verbalizability can come apart, raising a reliability concern for learned interpretability interfaces.