Pretraining Language Models on Historical Text

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have increasingly assisted in historical tasks such as text processing, their capacity for professional-level historical reasoning remains underexplored. Existing benchmarks primarily assess basic knowledge breadth or lexical understanding, failing to capture the higher-order skills, such as evidentiary reasoning,that are central to historical research. To fill this gap, we introduce ProHist-Bench, a novel benchmark anchored in the Chinese Imperial Examination (Keju) system, a comprehensive microcosm of East Asian political, social, and intellectual history spanning over 1,300 years. Developed through deep interdisciplinary collaboration, ProHist-Bench features 400 challenging, expert-curated questions across eight dynasties, accompanied by 10,891 fine-grained evaluation rubrics. Through a rigorous evaluation of 18 LLMs, we reveal a significant proficiency gap: even state-of-the-art LLMs struggle with complex historical research questions. We hope ProHist-Bench will facilitate the development of domain-specific reasoning LLMs, advance computational historical research, and further uncover the untapped potential of LLMs. We release ProHist-Bench at https://github.com/inclusionAI/ABench/tree/main/ProHist-Bench.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly critical to digital library workflows, yet their ability to process historical language remains poorly understood. Historical difficulty is typically treated as a monolithic barrier, conflating orthographic variation, linguistic distance, and pretraining exposure. In this paper, we propose a diagnostic framework that decomposes this difficulty into four distinct dimensions: tokenization cost, predictive uncertainty (surprisal), semantic robustness, and context sensitivity. We evaluate this framework on three datasets spanning three centuries: (1) a newly curated corpus of 17th-century Italian texts (1610-1689) digitized from original page images; (2) canonical 19th-century Italian "I Promessi Sposi" serving as a high-exposure control; and (3) 18th-century Russian civil print books as a contrastive orthographic stress test. Our results reveal a distinct dissociation between encoding cost and comprehension. While Russian and early modern Italian incur comparable tokenization penalties (25-30% inflation), their predictive difficulty diverges sharply. 17th-century Italian is on average 2.4 times more surprising than its modern equivalent - with academic prose reaching 3.2 times - whereas Russian shows only a modest increase. But predictive uncertainty does not imply representational degradation: embedding similarity remains robust (> 0.85) across all datasets, confirming that models can represent historical meaning even when generation is unstable. Finally, we demonstrate that a minimal temporal context prompt reduces historical surprisal by approximately 60%, offering a simple, model-agnostic mitigation. These findings suggest that while historical text imposes a consistent encoding tax, digital libraries can safely deploy LLMs for semantic retrieval tasks, provided that generative applications are carefully adapted.

Large language models trained on unrestricted internet corpora inevitably embed information from the future, introducing lookahead bias that compromises the validity of backtests and causal inference in finance and the social sciences. Point-in-time language models--trained exclusively on text available up to each calendar date--eliminate this leakage by construction, but existing efforts typically produce models that lag substantially behind their unconstrained counterparts. We show that this performance gap can be substantially narrowed through scale. Training decoder-only transformers with up to 4 billion parameters on 1 trillion chronologically filtered tokens from FineWeb, we construct a sequence of monthly model checkpoints spanning 2013-2024. Across a range of common-sense reasoning and language understanding benchmarks, our models approach the performance of leading open-weight models of comparable size (e.g., Gemma-3-4B and LLaMA-7B) trained on temporally unrestricted data, although a performance gap remains on several tasks. Instruction fine-tuning via LoRA further improves downstream usability. We release the complete pipeline--including dataset construction, training infrastructure, and evaluation code--to enable reproducible point-in-time language modeling and to support research applications that require strict temporal validity.