Expert-Aware Causal Tracing of Factual Recall in Sparse MoE Language Models

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models route each token to a small subset of experts, but whether the routes selected by a trained top-$k$ router are good ones is rarely evaluated directly. Holding the model fixed, we compare each standard route against sampled equal-compute alternatives for the same token and score each by the next-token probability it assigns to the realized token in a verified reasoning trajectory. The result is sharply token-conditional: the standard router is well-aligned with route utility on confident tokens but uninformative on the fragile tokens that drive hard reasoning, where lower-loss equal-compute routes consistently exist inside the frozen model but are not selected. The same pattern holds across Qwen3-30B-A3B, GPT-OSS-20B, DeepSeek-V2-Lite, and OLMoE-1B-7B, and follows structurally from how standard top-$k$ training evaluates routing decisions: the language modeling loss scores only the executed route, and load balancing depends only on aggregate routing statistics. A minimal router-only update to the final-layer router, leaving every expert and every other router frozen, is sufficient to shift pass@K on AIME 2024+2025 and HMMT 2025 for both Qwen3-30B-A3B and GPT-OSS-20B, suggesting that at least part of the failure reflects router-reachable misallocation rather than expert capacity alone.

Machine unlearning is increasingly important for large language models, yet unlearning in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures remains underexplored. Unlike dense models, MoE architectures employ a router at each layer to assign each token to a sparse subset of experts. In this work, we observe that forget data often activates a small subset of experts disproportionately, while these experts may receive much weaker activation from retain data. This forget--retain routing mismatch can leave forget-critical experts under-regularized during unlearning. To address this, we propose \textbf{TRACE}, Targeted Routing-Aware Calibration of Experts, for MoE unlearning. TRACE first detects forget-critical experts from offline activation statistics, and then calibrates retain regularization by reweighting token-level retain losses so that each selected expert's retain-side activation frequency better matches its forget-side counterpart. Experiments on WMDP and MUSE-BOOKS across multiple MoE LLMs show that TRACE consistently improves the forget-utility trade-off, yielding a 9% relative utility improvement over the strongest baseline under comparable forgetting quality and the best performance on three out of four MUSE-BOOKS metrics.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) large language models achieve strong quality with low per-token compute, yet their deployment is often limited by the memory wall: the full expert pool must remain resident to support token-dependent routing. Expert pruning is a direct remedy, but prior criteria typically score experts independently and overlook that MoE inference is inherently \emph{coalitional}, where outputs arise from routed top-$k$ expert combinations. We propose \textbf{SHAPE}, a task-driven pruning framework that explicitly models \emph{intra-layer} expert cooperation. SHAPE formulates routing traces on a small calibration set as an empirical cooperative game and assigns interaction-aware expert values via a Shapley-style attribution over observed top-$k$ coalitions, enabling the identification of experts that are essential for high-utility collaborations rather than merely frequent. To preserve MoE topology under a global pruning budget, SHAPE further introduces a \emph{quality-coverage} selection rule that retains, in each layer, the minimal expert subset covering an $α$ fraction of non-negative Shapley mass, while using bisection to match a target keep rate. Experiments on three modern MoE backbones (Qwen3-30B-A3B, GPT-OSS-20B, and DeepSeek-V2-Lite) across diverse benchmarks show that SHAPE consistently improves robustness over global and layer-wise pruning variants, maintaining competitive accuracy under 20% and 40% expert pruning without additional training and delivering clear reductions in peak GPU memory footprint. The open-source code is available at https://github.com/Alizen-1009/Shapley-Moe.