Neuron Populations Exhibit Divergent Selectivity with Scale

Neural scaling laws describe how pre-training loss decays as power laws with training time, model size, and compute. This position paper argues that the exponents of these power laws are fixed by generic mechanisms: a one-third time scaling due to the strong nonlinearity of Softmax, an inverse width scaling due to representational superposition, and an inverse depth scaling due to ensemble averaging of Transformer layers. These mechanisms are robust to a wide range of data structures and architectural details, placing current large language models in a universality class with fixed exponents. The coefficients, however, are expected to be sensitive to data and architecture details, and directly determine practical quantities such as the optimal model shape and the compute-optimal frontier. We therefore argue that understanding the coefficients is the key to near-term performance improvements, and that a closer examination of the current universality class may reveal pathways to better universality classes.

Scaling data and artificial neural networks has transformed AI, driving breakthroughs in language and vision. Whether similar principles apply to modeling brain activity remains unclear. Here we leveraged a dataset of 3.1 million neurons from the visual cortex of 73 mice across 323 sessions, totaling more than 150 billion neural tokens recorded during natural movies, images and parametric stimuli, and behavior. We train multi-modal, multi-task models that support three regimes flexibly at test time: neural prediction, behavioral decoding, neural forecasting, or any combination of the three. OmniMouse achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming specialized baselines across nearly all evaluation regimes. We find that performance scales reliably with more data, but gains from increasing model size saturate. This inverts the standard AI scaling story: in language and computer vision, massive datasets make parameter scaling the primary driver of progress, whereas in brain modeling -- even in the mouse visual cortex, a relatively simple system -- models remain data-limited despite vast recordings. The observation of systematic scaling raises the possibility of phase transitions in neural modeling, where larger and richer datasets might unlock qualitatively new capabilities, paralleling the emergent properties seen in large language models. Code available at https://github.com/enigma-brain/omnimouse.

Do large language models contain domain-specific parametric shells: concentrated, causally necessary neuron populations whose removal selectively degrades a target domain while sparing others? We apply a uniform causal methodology across two domain granularities, three model families (1.5B to 7B parameters), and eight domains. At the academic subject level, zero neurons exceed 60% domain selectivity across 939,008 combined FFN neurons and causal damage matrices are flat, despite domain identity being linearly decodable above 85% accuracy. At the language and modality level, 0.65--1.14% of neurons exceed 60% selectivity, damage matrices are near-perfectly diagonal (ratios up to 595:1), and shell neuron sets are essentially disjoint (IoU $< 0.003$). Masking code-selective neurons reduces mathematical reasoning accuracy by 16--24 percentage points across all models; masking Spanish or Chinese neurons leaves it at or below random. Shell strength increases monotonically with scale and shells are spatially interleaved in a pattern that precludes group-level selective quantization. Parametric shells form where and only where training data was modular at the token level.