Attack Detection using Time Series Foundation Models

Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) is essential for reliability and safety in domains such as industrial process monitoring and financial risk management, yet conventional approaches rely on application-specific models that are costly to train and hard to scale. Foundation Models (FMs), pre-trained on broad data with strong zero-shot generalization, have recently become available for univariate time series forecasting, raising the question of whether they can address MTSAD without task-specific training. We investigate the zero-shot application of a univariate forecasting FM, TimesFM, to industrial MTSAD on the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) benchmark, evaluating two strategies: treating the FM as a per-feature forecaster with thresholded prediction errors, and as an embedder whose intermediate representations feed standard outlier detectors. Neither of our proposed setups is competitive with established baselines; embeddings reveal only partial separation between normal and anomalous segments, insufficient for reliable detection. The cause is that the FM is too effective at capturing temporal dynamics, yielding low error even within fully anomalous windows, so persistent anomalies become indistinguishable from normal behavior. However, these observations yield valuable insights: the error peaks at anomaly boundaries, indicating FMs reliably detect distribution changes. We conclude that the proposed naive zero-shot FMs are unsuitable for MTSAD but promising for change-point detection.

Training and evaluating false data injection attack (FDIA) detectors for power systems is constrained by data scarcity. Operational grid measurements are commercially sensitive, and hand-crafted attacks fail to capture complex distributional structures imposed by network physics. We present \textsc{GenAI-FDIA}, a framework benchmarking a pool of $P{=}20$ architectures for physics-compliant FDIA synthesis, spanning Wasserstein GANs, MMD-VAEs, normalising flows, diffusion models, and cross-family hybrids. These are evaluated across three IEEE testbeds (14-bus DC, 30-bus DC, and 14-bus AC) under a 60/20/20 chronological split using data-driven Bad Data Detection (BDD) threshold calibration. Our empirical results verify that these models generate high-fidelity attacks, with all architectures achieving evasion rates of $ε_{\text{BDD}} \ge 86.6\%$ on the 14-bus network; additionally, limiting an attacker's topological knowledge induces a measurable degradation in stealthiness ($p \le 0.0022$). Crucially, we identify a previously unreported failure mode: applying affine physics projections directly in normalised feature spaces critically displaces the attack vector, collapsing BDD evasion from ${\sim}55\%$ to $<\!2\%$ on the 30-bus testbed. We resolve this via a novel inference-time harmoniser, restoring full stealthiness ($ε_{\text{BDD}}{=}100\%$) across all physics-informed variants without retraining. Finally, we isolate a covariance-collapse phenomenon ($κ\approx {-}0.076$) within advanced hybrid architectures and rectify it through 50-epoch warm-up schedules ($κ\to 0.785$, $Δ\text{MMD}={-}3.1\%$). Ultimately, \textsc{GenAI-FDIA} delivers a robust recovery blueprint applicable to any physics-constrained generative model deployed for power-system security.

The rapid growth of AI-driven data centers and large-scale energy storage systems is increasing the reliance of power system operation on real-time measurement data and automated decision-making. However, many existing detection methods rely on statistical or data-driven analysis of measurements and can fail when attackers exploit the same data structure to craft stealthy perturbations. To illustrate this limitation, we demonstrate a blind False Data Injection Attack (FDIA) in which an Autoencoder learns the measurement manifold and generates perturbations aligned with the Jacobian null space, thereby allowing the attack to evade both residual-based baddata detectors and time-series anomaly detectors. To mitigate data-driven FDIAs which exploit the null space, we propose a topology-informed Cycle-Space Detector (CSD) that leverages the Cycle-Space of the network to impose structural constraints that enhance null space estimation. In addition, we prove that by using the Minimum Cycle Basis (MCB), the proposed CSD achieves the optimal generalization error for attack detection. By exploiting topology-derived cycle constraints rather than relying solely on numerical null space estimation, the proposed method does not require precise line parameters and improves the separation between normal and attacked measurements. Simulation results on IEEE 14-, 30-, 57-, and 118-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method effectively detects data-driven FDIAs under realistic measurement noise.