Double Preconditioning (DoPr): Optimization for Test-Time Performance, not Validation Loss

Test-time training (TTT) adapts a pretrained model to each prompt via parameter updates, improving accuracy under pretraining-to-test distribution shifts. Yet, its performance often suffers from instability and sensitivity to hyperparameters such as update steps and subspace. We explain this behavior through a decision-theoretic lens, treating TTT as implicit Bayesian inference in the kernel regime. Under a Gaussian process benchmark, we show that TTT reduces prediction error when updates are spectrally matched to the prompt's signal-to-noise ratio and aligned with query-relevant eigen-directions. This perspective underpins the following results: (1) we show when fixed update steps and subspaces fail under distribution shifts, motivating adaptive strategies; (2) we prove that selecting update steps via prompt evidence admits a PAC-Bayes guarantee against overfitting; and (3) we characterize the Bayes-optimal update subspace under a linear-Gaussian correction model, yielding a scoring rule for selecting Transformer blocks and heads. Our theory helps explain the empirical instability of TTT, taking a step toward principled guidance for when, how far, and which directions to adapt.

Next-token prediction is the self-supervised signal that trains language models, and every observed prompt token provides the same signal at test time. We study whether this signal can define the inner-loop objective for test-time training (TTT) in pretrained long-context language models. Many TTT architectures require models to be trained with test-time adaptation in mind, limiting their direct applicability to released LLM checkpoints. While recent in-place TTT methods make fast-weight adaptation possible for pretrained LLMs without redesigning the backbone, they leave a central question unresolved: what should each test-time write store? Existing recipes train the fast weight to match a learned local value proxy but they are not directly tied to the self-supervised next-token prediction signal. We introduce Test-Time Training with Next-Token Prediction (TTT-NTP), a drop-in fast-weight adaptation method for pretrained LLMs that instead supervises updates using the model's own next contextual hidden state. This makes each local write follow the same causal computation that supports next-token prediction: the value target is a pointwise linear projection of a single next-position contextual state. On RULER Full-13, averaged over 4k to 32k contexts, TTT-NTP is the only method that consistently improves the released backbone across four models spanning three families and a 0.6-8B size range, by 3.9 points on Llama-3.1-8B, 3.0 on Mistral-7B-v0.3, 4.1 on Qwen3-4B, and 2.9 on Qwen3-0.6B. On the real-world LongBench-v2 long-document QA benchmark, TTT-NTP improves over the base model by 5.6 points on Llama-3.1-8B and 3.7 on Mistral-7B-v0.3, while preserving commonsense and knowledge performance. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yancyou/TTT-NTP.

Large language models are increasingly deployed with test-time strategies: sample $N$ responses, score them with a reward model or verifier, and return the best. This deployment rule exposes a mismatch in post-training: standard objectives optimize the mean reward of a single response, whereas best-of-$N$ performance is governed by the upper tail of the reward distribution. Recent test-time-aware objectives partly address this mismatch, but typically assume that training can use the same per-prompt rollout budget as deployment, which is impractical when post-training must cover many prompts while deployment can allocate much larger per-prompt test-time compute. We study this budget-mismatch regime, where only $m\ll N$ per-prompt rollouts are available during training but the target objective is best-of-$N$ deployment. Under structural assumptions on the reward tails, we show that the policy gradient of the best-of-$N$ objective can be approximated from a much smaller rollout group by extrapolating upper-tail statistics. This yields a family of Tail-Extrapolated estimators for best-of-$N$-oriented post-training: a simple direct estimator, Tail-Extrapolated Advantage (TEA), and a fixed-order debiased Prefix-TEA estimator based on moment cancellation. Experiments on instruction-following tasks show that TEA and Prefix-TEA improve best-of-$N$ performance across different language models, reward models and datasets under various training and test-time budget settings.