Spatiotemporal Imputation with Graph-Informed Flow Matching

Flow matching assumes fully observed training data, which many real-world applications rarely provide. We propose Missing-Data Flow Matching, which treats the missing coordinates of training samples as latent variables and averages the flow matching loss over the values they could take. We first prove the correction is exact rather than approximate. Under missing completely at random with true completions, the incomplete-data objective equals the complete-data objective, so missingness changes nothing about what flow matching learns and the entire difficulty relocates to the completion model. Our finite-sample analysis then answers design questions that the algorithm leaves open, and the answers are not the ones intuition suggests. Missingness transfers estimator variance rather than adding it, one completion per example already matches complete-data variance exactly, and under a fixed evaluation budget one completion is optimal. A learned completion model contributes a single irreducible bias, which we bound by its expected conditional Wasserstein distance to the true completion law. Experiments numerically validate the theoretical predictions, show that deterministic rather than frozen imputation is what collapses the generated distribution, and place our method alongside strong classical and deep imputation baselines on real tabular data.

Multivariate time series imputation (MTSI) aims to recover missing values in temporal data composed of multiple interdependent variables. This problem is central to real-world applications such as healthcare monitoring, traffic networks, and energy systems. Recent diffusion-based approaches have shown strong potential for probabilistic imputation by learning to generate missing values through iterative denoising. However, most existing approaches perform diffusion directly in the original data space, requiring the denoising network to simultaneously capture global structure, temporal dynamics, and stochastic variability. This makes the generative task unnecessarily complex, especially when modern deterministic imputers can already provide accurate initial reconstructions. To address this limitation, we propose RDDMPI, a conditional residual diffusion framework that operates directly in residual space. Instead of modeling the full missing signal directly, we reformulate probabilistic imputation as a baseline-residual decomposition, where a pretrained model captures the dominant signal and a diffusion process models the residual uncertainty. To better exploit deterministic guidance, \model{} conditions the reverse denoising process on both the baseline-completed signal and its latent representation, while a reliability-aware conditioning mechanism adaptively controls the influence of baseline information during residual generation. This formulation simplifies the diffusion learning objective, enabling it to focus on structured correction terms rather than reconstructing the full signal. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that RDDMPI consistently improves both reconstruction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Multivariate time series imputation is fundamental in applications such as healthcare, traffic forecasting, and biological modeling, where sensor failures and irregular sampling lead to pervasive missing values. Existing Transformer- and diffusion-based imputers achieve strong performance, but they often rely mainly on time-domain modeling and lack adaptive spectral bias for recovering structured temporal gaps. We propose FADTI, a Fourier- and attention-driven diffusion framework for multivariate time series imputation. FADTI introduces a Fourier Bias Projection (FBP) module that injects learnable frequency-aware bias into intermediate hidden states during denoising. It projects intermediate hidden states onto Fourier bases, avoiding direct spectral estimation from masked or zero-filled inputs. With DFT, STFT, and FSST instantiations, FBP captures global periodicity, localized time--frequency variations, and non-stationary oscillatory patterns. By coupling FBP with self-attention and gated convolution, FADTI integrates frequency-domain guidance, temporal dependency modeling, and probabilistic denoising in a unified framework. Experiments on multiple benchmarks, including a new biological imputation benchmark, show that FADTI improves accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and sampling efficiency, especially under high missing rates and structured missing patterns. Code is available at https://github.com/RazeenLI/FADTI