Interpreting Learning Under Competing Models: Joint and Stepwise Approaches for Dynamic Cognitive Diagnosis

The research proposes a multilayer Q-matrix-embedded neural network for cognitive diagnosis (M-QCDNet), which integrates the structural interpretability of cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) with the deep learning neural network (NN). M-QCDNet structures the item-skill relationship using the Q-matrix as a structural prior, ensuring latent mastery profiles remain interpretable and consistent with cognitive theory, followed by the proposed loss function with an L2 penalty to penalize skills not aligned with the Q-matrix and to balance predictive performance and structural alignment. Corresponding evaluation matrices, the interpretable alignment-based metrics that quantify the degree to which predicted skill activations correspond to item-level skills, were further developed. M-QCDNet offers practical benefits for classroom practice, enabling early detection of learning difficulties and supporting mastery-based interventions. By embedding diagnostic validity into model design, M-QCDNet bridges psychometric transparency and neural flexibility, advancing interpretable, fair, and actionable AI for cognitive diagnostics.

Q-matrices play a central role in cognitive diagnosis within educational data mining (EDM), specifying which latent skills each assessment item requires. Data-driven Q-matrix estimation remains challenging when assessments involve many correlated skills and when real response patterns depart from idealized generative assumptions. We introduce a novel quantum sparse autoencoder (QSAE) for Q-matrix estimation, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first application of quantum machine learning (QML) to cognitive diagnosis. Overall, the QSAE embeds each student's binary response vector into a quantum circuit using an encoder, compresses it into a sparse latent representation, and maps that representation to the Q-matrix. We benchmark the QSAE against a classical autoencoder (CAE) across 60 simulated datasets and 9 real-world assessment datasets. The results reveal complementary strengths. Although the CAE partially achieves higher average accuracy under several simulation conditions, the QSAE is substantially more stable across replications, exhibiting lower variance in 49 of the 60 conditions. Moreover, on real assessment data, the QSAE outperforms the CAE on 6 of the 9 datasets. These findings suggest that the principal advancement of QML in this setting is not universal accuracy improvement, but enhanced robustness and capability to explore latent-structure complexity in real datasets.

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) is a statistical test theory that precisely estimates multiple latent skills of learners from the responses in a test. Both compensatory and non-compensatory models have been proposed for MIRT: the former assumes that each skill can complement other skills, whereas the latter assumes they cannot. This non-compensatory assumption is convincing in many tests that measure multiple skills; therefore, applying non-compensatory models to such data is crucial for achieving unbiased and accurate estimation. In contrast to tests, latent skills will change over time in daily learning. To monitor the growth of skills, dynamical extensions of MIRT models have been investigated. However, most of them assumed compensatory models, and a model that can reproduce continuous latent states of skills under the non-compensatory assumption has not been proposed thus far. To enable accurate skill tracing under the non-compensatory assumption, we propose a dynamical extension of non-compensatory MIRT models by combining a linear dynamical system and a non-compensatory model. This results in a complicated posterior of skills, which we approximate with a Gaussian distribution by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximated posterior and the true posterior. The learning algorithm for the model parameters is derived through Monte Carlo expectation maximization. Simulation studies verify that the proposed method is able to reproduce latent skills accurately, whereas the dynamical compensatory model suffers from significant underestimation errors. Furthermore, experiments on an actual data set demonstrate that our dynamical non-compensatory model can infer practical skill tracing and clarify differences in skill tracing between non-compensatory and compensatory models.