The Shibboleth Effect: Auditing the Cross-Lingual Distributional Skew of Large Language Models
Authors: Hakan Mehmetcik
Organizations: Visiting Researcher, Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame, IN, USA · Prof of International Relations, at the Faculty of Political Science, Marmara University, Istanbul, Türkiye
Abstract
This study investigates cross-lingual distributional skew (the Shibboleth Effect) in frontier large language models (LLMs) subjected to sustained adversarial conditions. We develop a multi-agent geopolitical wargame, the Cerulean Sea Crisis, a synthetic maritime territorial dispute designed to mirror the structural dynamics of Eastern Mediterranean conflicts. Six frontier models (GPT-4o, Llama-4, Mistral-Large, Gemini-3.1-Pro, Qwen3.6-Plus, and DeepSeek-R1) participate in a between-groups experiment (N = 10 games per arm, K = 5 rounds per game) in which the sole manipulation is the language of play (English versus Turkish), producing 586 validated statements. A zero-shot classifier assesses behavioral dispositions along two continuous dimensions: Concession Rate and Coercive Rhetoric. The results are heterogeneous. Llama-4 shows a substantial, Holm-corrected increase in coercive rhetoric under Turkish (delta = +0.800, p = .002), whereas Gemini-3.1-Pro displays an equally large decrease (delta = -0.750, p = .005). DeepSeek-R1 exhibits a similar negative shift (delta = -0.860, p = .006) and provides chain-of-thought evidence consistent with a buffering mechanism. GPT-4o shows no detectable effect (delta = +0.130, p = .614). These findings indicate that cross-lingual behavioral skew is contingent on model architecture and training regime rather than a universal property of Western-origin LLMs. We identify two distinct buffering mechanisms, chain-of-thought institutional anchoring and multilingual RLHF alignment, and discuss their implications for integrating LLMs safely into diplomatic and crisis-management settings.
We audit six large language models (LLMs) for gender stereotyping across English, Korean, Chinese, and Japanese. Three were developed primarily for English-language use (Claude, GPT, Gemini) and three for East Asian use (DeepSeek, Syn-Pro, HyperCLOVA X). We adopt the HEXACO-100 personality inventory and anchor each model against a cross-cultural human dataset spanning 48 countries to ask not whether LLMs are biased, but how far their gender attributions drift from the populations they are deployed among. Our findings show that their stereotyping spans a range roughly 2.5 times wider than the entire cross-country range found in humans, and the effect can compound across languages. One English-centric model, prompted in Korean, reached 5 times the local baseline, even when the prompt stated the candidate had already been hired, which often dampens human stereotyping. To characterize such behaviors without ranking them, we introduce a four-pattern framework -- concordance, suppression, reorganization, and amplification -- across 24 (model x language) cells. Item-level analysis reveals that translation does not just rescale stereotypes, but changes the attributes tied to it, hiding significant rearrangement under the surface while appearing well-calibrated. Our results ultimately suggest that no single debiasing pipeline is likely to address bias evenly across linguistic boundaries.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for translation tasks, yet their implicit political positioning in such contexts remains understudied. We ask whether a single politically charged framing term, such as aggressor, enemy, neighbour, or coloniser is sufficient to trigger implicit political alignment in an otherwise apolitical task. We present a fully crossed factorial study in which eight models spanning Western, Chinese, and European origins are prompted to translate culturally attributed recipes into a target language left deliberately unspecified. Across 17 languages, four framing conditions, eight models, and 15,680 responses, we find that models do not simply decline or ask for clarification but resolve the ambiguity. Language resolution and reasoning behavior cluster meaningfully along model families: Western models hedge and deflect with vague justifications, Chinese models resolve conflicts silently, and Mistral Large emerges as a distinct profile combining high compliance with conflict-grounded reasoning. Sensitivity to framing terms is consistent across models: even subtle framing variation is sufficient to modulate behavior. Our findings urge caution when deploying LLMs for translation in conflict-adjacent contexts, where implicit political judgments may be made without any signal to the user.
Svetlana Gorovaia, Angelica Henestrosa, Ivan P. Yamshchikov
It has generally been assumed that geopolitical bias in language models originates from the training data used during the pre-training phase. We tested seven open-weight LLM pairs consisting of the base model (pre-training only) and the chat model (pre-training and post-training) from seven labs on a paired-scenario forced-choice probe over 28 country pairs in English, French, and Chinese, and found that geopolitical bias originates in post-training rather than in pre-training. Across seven AI labs, six showed shifts in the direction associated with the country or region of the model developer after post-training. This shift is strongest in Alibaba's Qwen 2.5: while the base is neutral on China-favourability (-0.15 log-odds, p=0.15), the post-trained chat variant is at +2.91 (p<10^-4), an 18x shift in odds. We also observe shifts in biases toward other countries across all models. Additionally, the magnitude of this shift depends on the language used to prompt the model: the French-made Mistral becomes pro-France only under French prompting (FR-EN shift +1.91, p<10^-4). These findings suggest that geopolitical preferences in language models are not simply inherited from large-scale internet data but are actively shaped during post-training, highlighting the need for greater transparency, auditing, and oversight of alignment processes that influence how models represent nations, cultures, and political perspectives.