Time-Conditioned and Multi-Time Survival Prediction from 2D PET/CT Projections in Lung Cancer

Accurate prognosis prediction is important for treatment planning in lung cancer, but deep learning-driven survival modelling is often limited by the scarcity of curated imaging cohorts with reliable outcome data. This study evaluates whether representations from a domain-specific foundation model can be used for multimodal survival prediction in data-constrained clinical settings. We assess the foundation model CT-CLIP as a feature extractor for pretreatment computed tomography images and clinical variables from 242 diagnosed lung cancer patients. The evaluation includes adaptation strategies based on frozen encoders, full fine-tuning, and low-rank adaptation, together with modality ablations and comparisons with clinical and multimodal baselines. The results show that a frozen CT-CLIP model combined with a trainable lightweight survival head outperforms the clinical baseline and achieves comparable or improved performance relative to other multimodal approaches, and separates patients into clinically meaningful high- and low-risk groups.

Lung cancer results in roughly 1.8 million fatalities annually worldwide, with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) comprising the majority of cases. Despite advancements in treatment, survival stratification remains challenging due to intratumoral heterogeneity inadequately captured by conventional descriptors. Standard radiomic and deep learning techniques regard imaging features as independent quantities, overlooking structured interactions between tumor characteristics. We evaluate whether structured proxy features can enhance multimodal NSCLC survival prediction by augmenting pretreatment computed tomography (CT) representations, radiomics, and clinical variables with six simulation-derived features designed to capture interactions between heterogeneity and morphology. A radiomic-parameterized cellular automaton generates growth-rate and necrosis-ratio proxy features from baseline CT by using entropy and sphericity to compute low-dimensional proxy parameters. The imaging backbone is a Transformer-based Masked Autoencoder (TMAE), which was chosen after a systematic evaluation with alternative encoders within the same pipeline and provides attention-based visualizations that highlight tumor regions receiving higher model attention. On the public Lung1 cohort (n = 390), the primary four-modality fusion attained a C-index of 0.641 (iAUC 0.731, log-rank p < 0.001). The primary result compares favorably with prior multimodal results on Lung1 (C-index 0.631; iAUC 0.592 [15]) under a comparable evaluation protocol, while a separate exploratory coefficient-optimization analysis achieved a best observed C-index of 0.662 (iAUC 0.748). These results indicate that, in addition to conventional radiomic, deep, and clinical representations within the Lung1 benchmark, simulation-derived proxy features may provide complementary predictive information within this fixed Lung1 benchmark.

Lung cancer remains one of the leading causes of cancer- related mortality worldwide. Although targeted therapies have improved outcomes for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), they rely on mutation profiling through tissue biopsy, an invasive procedure with several limitations. This study investigates PET/CT-based radio- genomic prediction of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), tumour protein 53 (TP53), and Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene (KRAS) mutations using deep learning. We further evaluate whether pairwise multi-label learning improves mutation prediction compared with conventional single-gene classification. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies to systematically investigate multi-label learning for PET/CT radiogenomic mutation prediction in NSCLC. Experiments were conducted on a novel UK-based radiogenomics cohort. Joint pre- diction of KRAS and TP53 improved AUC from 0.58 to 0.64 for KRAS and from 0.69 to 0.71 for TP53. For the EGFR/KRAS pair, only EGFR benefited from joint learning, while no improvement was observed for the EGFR/TP53 pair. These findings demonstrate that the effectiveness of multi-label learning depends on the specific combination of gene mutations being modelled, suggesting that mutation-specific modelling strategies may be preferable for PET/CT radiogenomic prediction.