A Privacy-Preserving Framework Using Remote Data Science for Inter-Institutional Student Retention Prediction

Federated learning (FL) offers a promising approach to privacy-preserving clinical risk prediction, but its deployment remains limited by restricted data sharing, client heterogeneity, class imbalance, and the lack of realistic tabular electronic health record (EHR) benchmarks. Synthetic data generation may alleviate data scarcity, yet its integration with federated optimisation has received limited systematic study. We propose SynPre-FL, a unified framework combining high-fidelity synthetic EHR generation with synthetic-pretrained FL for robust prediction under non-IID conditions. A latent autoencoder-diffusion model generates privacy-preserving synthetic cohorts, which are used to warm-start federated training. This pretraining is followed by heterogeneity-aware optimisation using class-balanced local objectives, proximal regularisation, and adaptive server aggregation. Post-hoc calibration and federated-safe explainability support reliable and interpretable risk estimates. Experiments show that the synthetic generator preserves univariate, bivariate, and multivariate structure while protecting against membership-inference and reconstruction attacks. The generated data achieve strong downstream utility under TSTR, TRTS, and model-based evaluations. Across federated settings with 5, 10, and 15 heterogeneous clients, SynPre-FL consistently improves robustness and scalability over baseline methods, especially under severe non-IID fragmentation. Calibration improves probability reliability, while SHAP analysis produces stable and clinically coherent feature attributions across federation sizes. SynPre-FL therefore provides a practical and reproducible framework for combining synthetic data with FL to enable privacy-aware, interpretable, and robust clinical prediction from distributed tabular EHR data.

Rising societal and lifestyle complexity has been linked to a growing prevalence of mental distress worldwide. Educational institutions, workplaces, clinics, etc. collect large volumes of mental health survey data to understand and reduce this burden. Collaborative analysis of such data could yield effective generalizable predictive models. Privacy constraints and varied survey designs (i.e., different questions, scales, and formats) hinder direct integration. We propose a schema-aware split learning (SL) framework that preserves privacy, using a large language model (LLM) as a shared semantic encoder to harmonize heterogeneous survey schemas across institutions. We serialize each survey record into a natural-language description, unifying disparate survey schemas into a common format. The LLM is fine-tuned for mental distress assessment via Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and partitioned across client and server. Clients retain the raw survey responses locally and run only a lightweight front-end, so original records never leave the institution that collected them. The resource-intensive backbone runs on the server, minimizing client-side computation. Using LLaMA-3.2-3B-Instruct, the framework attains an average ANLS of 0.708 with only 2,000 training samples, surpasses federated learning (FL) in eight of nine settings, and cuts per-client computation by three orders of magnitude, while generalizing to unseen datasets. Overall, it enables accurate, privacy-preserving, and resource-efficient collaborative learning from heterogeneous mental health survey data.

Synthetic data generation offers promise for addressing data scarcity and privacy concerns in educational technology, yet practitioners lack empirical guidance for selecting between traditional resampling techniques and modern deep learning approaches. This study presents the first systematic benchmark comparing these paradigms using a 10,000-record student performance dataset. We evaluate three resampling methods (SMOTE, Bootstrap, Random Oversampling) against three deep learning models (Autoencoder, Variational Autoencoder, Copula-GAN) across multiple dimensions: distributional fidelity (Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance, Jensen-Shannon divergence), machine learning utility such as Train-on-Synthetic-Test-on-Real scores (TSTR), and privacy preservation (Distance to Closest Record). Our findings reveal a fundamental trade-off: resampling methods achieve near-perfect utility (TSTR: 0.997) but completely fail privacy protection (DCR ~ 0.00), while deep learning models provide strong privacy guarantees (DCR ~ 1.00) at significant utility cost. Variational Autoencoders emerge as the optimal compromise, maintaining 83.3% predictive performance while ensuring complete privacy protection. We also provide actionable recommendations: use traditional resampling for internal development where privacy is controlled, and VAEs for external data sharing where privacy is paramount. This work establishes a foundational benchmark and practical decision framework for synthetic data generation in learning analytics.