Uncertainty Quantification of Engineering Structures by Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Multivariate Active Learning

Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays a key role in uncertainty quantification by identifying the contributions of uncertain inputs to the variability of the model response. The repeated model evaluations required for these tasks are often prohibitively expensive; surrogate models provide an efficient alternative by constructing inexpensive approximations of the underlying system response. Constructing surrogate models that combine scalability and interpretability for systems with high-dimensional stochastic inputs and functional responses remains challenging, particularly when sensitivity estimates are required across spatial or temporal domains. Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) provides an effective framework for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis due to its orthogonal structure and direct relationship with variance-based sensitivity measures. However, PCE suffers from the curse of dimensionality, whose computational burden is amplified for problems with functional responses. In this work, we introduce the Structured Neural Chaos (sNC) expansion as a surrogate modeling framework for variance-based GSA, inspired by the interpretability and orthogonal structure of PCE. The proposed framework retains the interpretability of structured decompositions while leveraging the expressive power of neural networks. The sNC expansion mirrors a truncated functional ANOVA decomposition, where each interaction component admits a separable low-rank approximation whose basis functions and coefficients are parameterized by neural networks. The expansion is constructed sequentially, adaptively identifying the dominant modes within each ANOVA subspace and determining the effective complexity of the representation. The resulting structure enables the extraction of statistical and sensitivity quantities directly from the coefficients of the sNC expansion at negligible cost.

Neural surrogates can substantially accelerate computer-aided engineering (CAE) workflows, but their use in design requires uncertainty estimates that remain meaningful across varying geometries, spatial prediction fields, and engineering quantities of interest. We investigate how established uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches behave when adapted to geometry-conditioned neural surrogates. We compare one closed-form and two sampling-based approaches-a Gaussian process (GP)-based method, concrete Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, and deep ensembles-and evaluate them on three large, industry-relevant CAE datasets for external aerodynamics and crash dynamics. We examine whether predicted uncertainties have credible magnitudes, identify locations with larger prediction errors, respond to unfamiliar inputs, and remain informative for derived engineering quantities. On the DrivAerStar dataset, where all three methods are compared, each generally assigns higher uncertainty to locations with larger prediction errors, and validation-based rescaling brings interval coverage close to nominal on a disjoint in-distribution test set. Results on AirFRANS and automotive crash also show useful error ranking and interval estimates, but the relative performance of the methods changes with the dataset and evaluation criterion. UQ methods and evaluation metrics should therefore be selected based on the intended downstream CAE decision.

Data-driven PDE surrogates are trained with data produced by numerical PDE solvers. However, when the surrogate's goal is to generalize across a wide range of PDE configurations (e.g., initial conditions and physical coefficients), generating a representative training set is non-trivial. Uniform sampling of configuration parameters often under-represents trajectories exhibiting challenging dynamics, leading to high prediction errors and large error variance in the trained surrogate. Online training, where data generation and surrogate training are coupled, offers a natural advantage by allowing solver parameters to be steered on-the-fly. To efficiently exploit this capability, we introduce Online Generative Active Sampling (OGAS), an active learning method that reactively learns the relationship between configuration parameters and surrogate performance to control the sampling distribution. OGAS trains a fast diffusion model in parallel to the surrogate to act as a conditional sampler, mapping a surrogate-derived difficulty signal (e.g., loss or uncertainty) to configuration parameters. By actively drawing target signals from a prior biased toward high difficulty, OGAS continuously steers data generation toward challenging regimes without delaying the training workflow. We evaluate OGAS across 2D PDEs with distinct challenging dynamics (Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes, Gray-Scott) and up to 308 parameters, using multiple surrogate architectures. Across all settings, OGAS consistently improves tail statistics, yielding substantial reductions in errors above the 99th percentile and overall error dispersion compared to uniform sampling. While prioritizing challenging trajectories introduces a trade-off with average error, OGAS effectively ensures worst-case reliability of trained surrogates with negligible wall-time overhead.