Tensor-based second-order causal discovery

Causal discovery with instantaneous effects in multivariate time series is challenging, as the instantaneous structure must be acyclic. Prior methods enforce this by either separating instantaneous and lagged estimation into multi-stage pipelines or imposing algebraic acyclicity constraints via complex augmented Lagrangian optimization, both of which incur high computational cost. In this work, we propose a different approach: we learn a differentiable permutation of variables using the Gumbel--Sinkhorn operator and triangularize the instantaneous coefficient matrix of a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model in the learned order. This converts acyclicity from a hard constraint into a parameterization and keeps it valid throughout optimization. In doing so, our method enables unified, continuous optimization with gradient-based learning, leading to improved efficiency in time--series causal discovery. Across three real-world benchmarks, our method achieves the best overall performance compared with 12 baselines in both discovery accuracy and efficiency. On the large-scale benchmark, it further demonstrates strong scalability, achieving more than a 6x speedup over competing methods.

Learning causal relations from observational data is challenging because the graph search space grows super-exponentially with the number of variables. Ordering-based methods reduce this space by first identifying the topological ordering, whereas continuous optimization methods explore most likely regions of the space by casting DAG learning as a differentiable objective with an acyclicity constraint. Despite their conceptual appeal, both paradigms face significant scalability limitations in high-dimensional settings, restricting their practical applicability. In this work, we introduce a new formulation for linear causal discovery that tightly integrates these two paradigms to achieve substantial gains in scalability without sacrificing accuracy. Our approach, TriOpt, decomposes the problem into two efficient stages. First, it recovers the topological ordering by exploiting the Sherman-Morrison rank-1 downdate together with the additive structure of linear kernels, enabling fast and scalable ordering estimation. Second, given this ordering, we reformulate structure learning as a convex continuous optimization problem that entirely avoids the need for enforcing costly acyclicity constraints. We theoretically show that, under the true ordering, TriOpt exactly recovers the underlying linear DAG. Empirically, across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets, TriOpt achieves orders-of-magnitude speedups over state-of-the-art linear causal discovery methods in high-dimensional regimes, while maintaining comparable or superior accuracy.

Continuous causal discovery typically couples representation learning with structural optimization via non-convex acyclicity penalties, which subjects solvers to local optima and restricts scalability in high-dimensional regimes. We propose a decoupled paradigm that shifts the causal discovery bottleneck from non-convex optimization to statistical score estimation. We introduce the Score-Schur Topological Sort (SSTS), an algorithm that extracts topological order directly from unconstrained generative models, bypassing constrained structure optimization. We establish that the causal hierarchy leaves a geometric signature within the score function: iterative graph marginalization is mathematically equivalent to computing the Schur complement of the Score-Jacobian Information Matrix (SJIM) under linear conditions. This translates the acyclicity constraint into an algebraic procedure with a dominant cost of O(d^3) operations. For non-linear systems, we formulate the expectation gap of Schur marginalization and introduce Block-SSTS to compress extraction depth, bounding structural error. Empirically, SSTS allows causal structural analysis on non-linear graphs up to d=1000. At this scale, our framework indicates that once the non-convex optimization bottleneck is mathematically bypassed, the structural fidelity of continuous causal discovery is bounded by the finite-sample estimation variance of the global score geometry. By reducing graph extraction to matrix operations, this work reframes scalable causal discovery from a constrained optimization problem to a statistical estimation challenge.