Weibull Weight-Scale Parameter Evolution under AdamW Training Dynamics

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

AdamW is the de facto optimizer for training large language models (LLMs), yet the theory behind it still lives mostly in finite-variance regimes. This is increasingly unsatisfying, as empirical evidence indicates that stochastic gradient noise in LLM pretraining is typically heavy-tailed. Recent work shows that sign-based optimizers such as Lion and Muon achieve sharp heavy-tailed rates, and that AdaGrad can also converge under heavy-tailed noise. However, no rigorous convergence theory for AdamW has yet been established in this regime. Can AdamW converge under the same heavy-tailed assumptions, or does its second-moment accumulator create a genuine obstruction? We formulate this as an open problem, prove a positive weighted-metric benchmark, and give a corridor lower-bound mechanism showing how denominator memory can hide large gradients.

Many neural networks operations have a multiplicative nature rather than additive: halving or doubling a norm are analogous relatively but require unequal optimization distances when taking linear steps. Adaptive optimizers such as Adam normalize updates per coordinate, but update steps remain additive; weights with very different magnitudes receive similarly sized absolute changes, producing very different relative perturbations. We introduce \textbf{\method} (\textbf{\methodshort}), a weight reparameterization for neural networks that combines a sign-aware symmetric-exponential pathway with an identity-like linear pathway. The symmetric-exponential pathway is near-linear for small raw weights but increasingly curved at larger magnitudes. Additive updates in logarithmic space map to magnitude-proportional changes in effective weight space. The linear pathway provides a direct route through the transform that we hypothesize stabilizes optimization, while learnable scale, curvature, and offset parameters control balance between pathways and the curvature of the exponential pathway. These components create a curved parameter-space geometry that empirically improves speed of loss descent over standard linear parameterization. We also identify a useful \emph{mismatched initialization}: raw weights are chosen so a symmetric version of the transform matches Xavier statistics, but training uses an asymmetric forward transform that leaves positive weights at full strength while making negative weights smaller in magnitude; in small-model ablations, this improves early optimization and may act as a form of symmetry breaking. We train transformers on OpenWebText over nine width$\times$depth configurations, \methodshort reaches matched validation loss in 1.32--1.49$\times$ fewer training steps, with the largest widths seeing the biggest gains.