Organizations: University of Edinburgh · University of Glasgow · University of Cambridge
Abstract
Decentralized finance exposes supervisors to fast-moving, networked credit risks. General-purpose LLM agents fit this setting poorly: they over-read weak evidence and recommend high-stakes interventions, while existing evaluations offer no regulator-aligned way to measure the resulting false alarms. We introduce DeXposure-Claw, a forecast-grounded agentic supervision system that routes LLM decisions through structured evidence: (1) DeXposure-FM, a graph time-series foundation model, forecasts future exposure networks; (2) deterministic monitors and stress scenarios then turn those forecasts into typed alerts, attribution signals, and scenario evidence; and (3) data-health and confidence gates constrain escalation before DeXposure-Claw emits auditable supervisory tickets with rationales. We further develop DeXposure-Bench, a six-axis evaluation harness, whose decision axis scores tickets against a regulator-aligned absolute-loss ground truth and an explicit false-intervention rate. Experiments on five years of weekly real data fully support our system. Code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-Claw.
Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.
Finance LLM agents must simultaneously block prompt-induced unauthorized actions and approve legitimate multi-step business workflows. However, boundary filters often miss irreversible mid-trajectory tool calls, while post-hoc LLM judges perform auditing only after termination -- too late for intervention and at a computational cost that scales linearly with trace length. We present FinHarness, an inline safety harness that wraps a finance agent end-to-end with three components: a Query Monitor that fuses single-turn intent with cross-turn drift, a Tool Monitor that evaluates each prospective tool call, and a Cascade module that integrates per-step risk and adaptively routes verification between a lightweight and an advanced-tier LLM judge. Fired risk factors are re-injected into the agent input as ex-ante evidence, enabling the agent to refuse, re-plan, or approve on its own. On FinVault, routed FinHarness cuts ASR from 38.3% to 15.0% while largely preserving benign approval (41.1%→39.3%), and uses 4.7× fewer advanced-judge calls than an always-advanced ablation.
As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in financial services, a single non-compliant interaction can expose institutions to regulatory penalties and direct consumer harm. Existing guard models are built around general harm taxonomies and overlook violations grounded in specific financial regulations. We address this gap with a regulation-driven pipeline that operates directly on regulatory documents, inducing a financial compliance risk taxonomy and synthesizing grounded training data without any predefined violation categories. Instantiating the pipeline on Chinese financial regulations, we release \textbf{FinGuard-Bench}, to our knowledge the first benchmark for financial regulatory compliance detection, with expert-annotated labels at both the query and response levels. We further train \textbf{FinGuard}, a financial compliance detection model built on Qwen3-8B and trained on the regulation-grounded data via supervised fine-tuning and self-play reinforcement learning. On FinGuard-Bench, FinGuard substantially outperforms all baselines, including dedicated guard models and much larger general-purpose LLMs such as Qwen3.5-397B-A17B and GPT-5.1. Furthermore, FinGuard also preserves general safety capabilities and adapts to unseen institution-specific policies using policy documents alone. We will publicly release the code, prompts, and resources used in this work on GitHub.