Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need. Reliable forecasts of epidemic time series can inform vaccination timing, hospital staffing, and resource allocation, yet the comparative behavior of modern forecasting architectures on infectious-disease surveillance data remains insufficiently characterized. We address this gap through a systematic evaluation of regional influenza forecasting using influenza-like illness surveillance and influenza-associated hospitalization time series under both temporal and spatial generalization settings for 1-4-week-ahead prediction. We compare classical neural network architectures, numerical transformer-based models, pretrained time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasting approaches. Across tasks, we demonstrate that a mixture-of-experts model that fuses multiple pretrained forecasters achieves the strongest overall performance, indicating that heterogeneous pretrained representations provide complementary predictive information. Our results further show that numerical transformer-based models produce reliable forecasts, while pretraining provides the largest gains at longer horizons, particularly when the pretraining domain is mechanistically aligned with influenza dynamics. In contrast, LLM-based time series methods underperform relative to numerical forecasters in this setting. Finally, we examine hospitalization information as both an auxiliary covariate and a pretraining source. Hospitalization signals provide complementary improvements in selected settings and clarify when additional surveillance streams enhance the robustness of multi-horizon forecasting. These findings provide actionable guidance on model selection, pretraining strategy, and auxiliary-signal use for influenza preparedness.
Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture multimodal uncertainty or emergent trends. Influpaint adapts denoising diffusion probabilistic models to epidemic forecasting. By encoding influenza seasons as spatiotemporal images in which pixel intensity represents incidence, Influpaint learns a rich distribution of disease dynamics from a hybrid dataset of surveillance and simulated trajectories. Forecasting is formulated as a conditional generation (inpainting) task from partial observations. We show that Influpaint generates realistic, diverse epidemic trajectories and achieves forecast accuracy that is competitive with leading ensemble methods in retrospective evaluation. In real-time evaluation during the 2023--2025 U.S. CDC FluSight challenges, performance improved substantially across seasons, with highly accurate but somewhat overconfident projections in 2024--2025. The best performance was achieved with a training dataset containing 30% surveillance and 70% simulated trajectories. These results show that diffusion models can capture important spatiotemporal structure in influenza dynamics and provide a flexible framework for probabilistic infectious disease forecasting.
Weekly influenza surveillance counts guide vaccine distribution and public-health alerts, yet they are hard to forecast. Each region offers only a few seasons, waves shift in timing and height every year, and information that helps while a wave grows misleads after its peak, whereas last season's shape stays informative for a year. Existing epidemic graph models and general forecasters read a short fixed window and treat all past information alike, so they neither exploit earlier seasons nor discard stale associations when the epidemic phase changes. To address these limitations, we propose TERN, a forecaster built around a delta-rule fast-weight memory that decays channel-wise and erases along a learned address under gates driven by local epidemic-phase features, combined with an explicit seasonal reference and online adaptation. On three Cola-GNN influenza benchmarks, TERN outperformed epidemic graph models and general forecasters, matched or exceeded seasonal references, and a controlled comparison confirmed the contribution of the memory itself.
Epidemic forecasting models typically rely on surveillance data reported over administrative regions, treating them as atomic units, thereby obscuring sub-regional spatial structure that shapes disease dynamics. We introduce a spatially structured multimodal epidemic forecasting setting that integrates region-level temporal surveillance data with spatially localized auxiliary signals that are misaligned in resolution and structure, reflecting realistic public health reporting constraints. Building on this formulation, we propose M-SPICE (Multimodal SPatIal Context for Epidemic Forecasting), a structure-aware spatiotemporal forecasting framework that performs joint reasoning over temporal disease dynamics and spatial context via attention-based multimodal fusion, allowing spatial signals to selectively condition temporal representations across forecast horizons. We evaluate our approach on real-world COVID-19, influenza, and influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting tasks under realistic real-time evaluation protocols. Across all forecasting settings, our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art multivariate time-series, multimodal, and epidemiological forecasting baselines while maintaining strong probabilistic forecasting performance. Finally, interpretability analyses reveal when, where, and how spatial signals are leveraged, highlighting settings in which purely temporal, region-aggregated models are most likely to fail.