Manifold Bandits: Bayesian Curriculum Learning over the Latent Geometry of Large Language Models
Authors: Darrien McKenzie, Nicklas Hansen, Xiaolong Wang
Organizations: University of California, San Diego
Abstract
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a central approach for improving reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), where training efficiency depends critically on how problems are sampled during optimization. Existing adaptive curriculum learning methods typically prioritize prompts of intermediate difficulty, treating problem selection as a standard bandit problem with independent arms and overlooking the structured, heterogeneous nature of the task space. In this work, we frame problem sampling as a manifold-structured bandit problem with endogenous non-stationarity: problems are related through the model's latent representation space, and sampling decisions can steer how learning signals evolve across that space. To operationalize this perspective, we introduce Bayesian Manifold Curriculum (BMC), a structure-aware framework that organizes problems into a hierarchical task tree and applies Bayesian learning to guide sampling. Empirically, we find that different sampling strategies induce non-trivial tradeoffs between productivity (learning signal), diversity (coverage of the task manifold), and utility (evaluation relevance). These results show that prioritizing difficulty alone is insufficient for strong downstream performance, highlighting the importance of incorporating structure and type-awareness into problem sampling.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is used to improve the reasoning abilities of LLMs, while training data span heterogeneous tasks. However, most RL post-training pipelines rely on fixed or manually designed task mixtures, even though task usefulness changes as training progresses. Online curriculum methods often define learnability by update magnitude, ignoring whether the update translates into reward gains, which can misallocate rollout budget toward tasks with large but ineffective updates. We propose PAC, a Progress-Augmented Advantage Curriculum for multi-task RL of LLMs that combines two task-level signals: advantage-derived learnability, which measures the magnitude of the policy update a task can induce, and recent reward gains, which show whether those updates have improved task performance. A Bayesian Thompson Sampling controller uses these signals to allocate rollouts across tasks during GRPO training. We evaluate PAC under two settings: a multi-level reasoning setting and a multi-domain reasoning setting. PAC improves sample efficiency and final performance: it reaches comparable validation scores with fewer rollout steps and achieves higher final averages than random sampling and advantage-based curriculum baselines in both settings. These results show that jointly tracking advantage signals and actual reward gains yields an effective online curriculum for LLM post-training.
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is widely viewed as a promising path toward continuously improving large language models. Recent works, however, suggest that mainstream RLVR often reallocates sampling probabilities among trajectories already present in the base model: it can improve sampling efficiency, reflected by higher pass@1 scores, but yields limited gains, and can even decrease pass@k scores when k is large, and therefore may fail to expand the base model's reasoning capacity boundary. In this paper, we present a boundary-aware Curriculum RL approach to move beyond the base model's reasoning capacity boundary. Our approach first uses pass@k sampling to locate the current reasoning capacity boundary, then applies targeted teacher guidance to examples near or beyond that boundary, and finally uses RL to consolidate the newly introduced reasoning patterns. Across Qwen, Llama, and DeepSeek base models, boundary-aware Curriculum RL improves both pass@1 scores and pass@256 scores, with pass@1 reflecting one-attempt performance and pass@256 serving as an empirical proxy for the reasoning capacity boundary. In our experiments, average pass@256 improves by 9.8 percentage points over the base models and by 10.3 percentage points over Vanilla RLVR. These results suggest that boundary-aware Curriculum RL can provide a scalable route for LLMs to continuously improve beyond the base model's empirical reasoning capacity boundary.
Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a central post-training paradigm for eliciting reasoning capabilities in large language models, yet uniform task sampling allocates compute without regard to differences in how tasks respond to optimization. Existing task-valuation methods mostly rely on snapshot-based signals such as current pass rate or reward, which estimate how solvable a task is under the current policy. However, tasks with similar current solvability can still differ substantially in how positively they respond to further training. We study this residual axis as task learnability: a regime-conditional measure of expected positive response to continued training under a fixed RL post-training regime. By analyzing per-task reward trajectories, we find that learnability is reproducible across independently sampled training contexts and predictive of downstream utility. To make this signal practical before training begins, we propose TrajVal, a lightweight probe-based estimator that approximates per-task learnability from a short probe run and two endpoint evaluations. TrajVal can be used either as a standalone static prior for task sampling or as a multiplicative prior for existing online schedulers. Experiments on mathematical and logical reasoning benchmarks across multiple model scales show that TrajVal improves data efficiency over uniform sampling and provides complementary gains when combined with online scheduling methods.