GroundControl: Anticipating Navigation Failures in Vision-Language Agents via Trajectory-Consistent Uncertainty Estimates
Authors: Nastaran Darabi, Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik, Amit Ranjan Trivedi
Organizations: University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC)
Abstract
Vision-language navigation agents achieve competitive average success on benchmark tasks, yet failures often arise through predictable trajectory-level breakdowns such as oscillation, stagnation, or inefficient detours. Reliable deployment, therefore, requires uncertainty signals that anticipate emerging failure dynamics during execution rather than reflect only instantaneous action entropy. We introduce \emph{GroundControl}, a trajectory-consistent uncertainty estimator defined as statistical deviation from nominal goal-directed distance-to-goal dynamics aggregated over an episode. GroundControl models distance evolution using a constant-velocity Kalman filter and combines normalized innovation statistics with complementary trajectory features capturing progress, monotonicity, path efficiency, and oscillatory behavior. The resulting uncertainty score reflects geometric and temporal inconsistency in navigation behavior rather than local prediction dispersion. To evaluate uncertainty quality independently of task success, we formalize \emph{Selective Risk--Coverage Navigation (SRCN)}, a protocol that measures how effectively an uncertainty score ranks episodes by failure or inefficiency using risk--coverage curves and AURC / E-AURC summaries. Across five EB-Navigation splits (N=300 episodes), trajectory-consistent uncertainty achieves near-oracle ordering under success-based selective risk, with weighted-average E-AURCSR=0.0024 for the GPT-4o model, substantially outperforming entropy-, conformal-, and heuristic baselines. Under SPL-based selective evaluation, GroundControl consistently achieves the lowest AURC and E-AURC across models and navigation splits. These results show that modeling deviation from goal-directed dynamics provides an interpretable and robust signal for anticipating navigation failures in vision-language agents.
Uncertainty estimation for Vision-Language-Navigation (VLN) models is a critical task since it can help identify ambiguous and unreliable predictions, enabling agents to make safer navigation decisions. As one of the most advanced uncertainty estimation frameworks, conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising approach for uncertainty estimation in VLN. However, given that VLN agent requires a sequence of steps, standard calibration in conformal prediction fails to provide coverage guarantee it promises over a dependent, variable-length VLN episode. To this end, we propose Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP), which rescales a nonconformity score by the policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode. Under exchangeable calibration and test episodes, this construction covers the ground truth at every step with probability at least 1−α, while allowing dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE dataset, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets on the seen-to-unseen evaluation. These results demonstrate that ENCP can provide model-agnostic uncertainty estimates, which might be useful for determining when a VLN agent should defer to a more capable predictor, including human assistance.
Vicky Feliren, A. Taufiq Asyhari, Muhamad Risqi U. Saputra
Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) requires an agent to navigate 3D environments following natural language instructions. During navigation, existing agents commonly encounter perceptual uncertainty, such as insufficient evidence for reliable grounding or ambiguity in interpreting spatial cues, yet they typically ignore such information when predicting actions. In this work, we explicitly model three forms of perceptual uncertainty (i.e., geometric, semantic, and appearance uncertainty) and integrate them into the agent's observation space to enable informed decision-making. Concretely, our agent first constructs a Semantic Gaussian Map (SGM), composed of differentiable 3D Gaussian primitives initialized from panoramic observations, that encodes both the geometric structure and semantic content of the environment. On top of SGM, geometric uncertainty is estimated through variational perturbations of Gaussian position and scale to assess structural reliability; semantic uncertainty is captured by perturbing Gaussian semantic attributes to reveal ambiguous interpretations; and appearance uncertainty is characterized by Fisher Information, which measures the sensitivity of rendered observations to Gaussian-level variations. These uncertainties are incorporated into SGM, extending it into a unified 3D Value Map, which grounds them as affordances and constraints that support reliable navigation. Comprehensive evaluations across multiple VLN benchmarks show the effectiveness of our agent.
Although vision-language models (VLMs) possess strong visual understanding and reasoning capabilities, existing vision-and-language navigation (VLN) agents struggle to connect semantic reasoning with spatial execution. Two coupled gaps remain in this connection, as intermediate reasoning is not explicitly anchored to visual evidence and high-level decisions lack precise spatial goals to guide low-level motion. Cognitive science suggests that human navigation bridges these levels hierarchically by anchoring cognition to relevant landmarks and guiding locomotion toward spatial goals. Motivated by this principle, we propose GroundingVLN, which uses visual grounding as a shared interface between reasoning and action. GroundingVLN first reasons with grounding by anchoring task-relevant visual evidence to precise image locations throughout structured reasoning. It then acts through grounding by predicting a progress-aligned pixel goal that a geometric planner translates into primitive actions. To learn these capabilities, we construct GroundingCOTVLN-188K, a dataset of temporally aligned grounded reasoning traces, and introduce Grounded and Execution-Aware Reinforcement Learning (GEAR), which aligns grounded reasoning and spatial decisions with downstream execution. Experiments demonstrate that GroundingVLN achieves state-of-the-art performance (69.9% SR on R2R-CE and 75.1% SR on RxR-CE) with high sample efficiency, using just 0.9% as much training data as the strongest baseline. It also generalizes strongly across datasets, attaining 59.9% SR on RxR-CE when trained solely on R2R, a gain of 20.1% over the strongest baseline.