ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

Vision-language navigation agents achieve competitive average success on benchmark tasks, yet failures often arise through predictable trajectory-level breakdowns such as oscillation, stagnation, or inefficient detours. Reliable deployment, therefore, requires uncertainty signals that anticipate emerging failure dynamics during execution rather than reflect only instantaneous action entropy. We introduce \emph{GroundControl}, a trajectory-consistent uncertainty estimator defined as statistical deviation from nominal goal-directed distance-to-goal dynamics aggregated over an episode. GroundControl models distance evolution using a constant-velocity Kalman filter and combines normalized innovation statistics with complementary trajectory features capturing progress, monotonicity, path efficiency, and oscillatory behavior. The resulting uncertainty score reflects geometric and temporal inconsistency in navigation behavior rather than local prediction dispersion. To evaluate uncertainty quality independently of task success, we formalize \emph{Selective Risk--Coverage Navigation (SRCN)}, a protocol that measures how effectively an uncertainty score ranks episodes by failure or inefficiency using risk--coverage curves and AURC / E-AURC summaries. Across five EB-Navigation splits ($N=300$ episodes), trajectory-consistent uncertainty achieves near-oracle ordering under success-based selective risk, with weighted-average $\mathrm{E\text{-}AURC}_{\mathrm{SR}}=0.0024$ for the GPT-4o model, substantially outperforming entropy-, conformal-, and heuristic baselines. Under SPL-based selective evaluation, GroundControl consistently achieves the lowest AURC and E-AURC across models and navigation splits. These results show that modeling deviation from goal-directed dynamics provides an interpretable and robust signal for anticipating navigation failures in vision-language agents.

Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) requires an agent to navigate 3D environments following natural language instructions. During navigation, existing agents commonly encounter perceptual uncertainty, such as insufficient evidence for reliable grounding or ambiguity in interpreting spatial cues, yet they typically ignore such information when predicting actions. In this work, we explicitly model three forms of perceptual uncertainty (i.e., geometric, semantic, and appearance uncertainty) and integrate them into the agent's observation space to enable informed decision-making. Concretely, our agent first constructs a Semantic Gaussian Map (SGM), composed of differentiable 3D Gaussian primitives initialized from panoramic observations, that encodes both the geometric structure and semantic content of the environment. On top of SGM, geometric uncertainty is estimated through variational perturbations of Gaussian position and scale to assess structural reliability; semantic uncertainty is captured by perturbing Gaussian semantic attributes to reveal ambiguous interpretations; and appearance uncertainty is characterized by Fisher Information, which measures the sensitivity of rendered observations to Gaussian-level variations. These uncertainties are incorporated into SGM, extending it into a unified 3D Value Map, which grounds them as affordances and constraints that support reliable navigation. Comprehensive evaluations across multiple VLN benchmarks show the effectiveness of our agent.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers capable of mapping visual observations and natural language instructions to continuous action sequences. However, VLAs provide no calibrated measure of confidence in their action predictions, thus limiting their reliability in real-world settings where uncertainty and failures must be anticipated. To address this problem we introduce ReconVLA, a reliable conformal model that produces uncertainty-guided and failure-aware control signals. Concretely, our approach applies conformal prediction directly to the action token outputs of pretrained VLA policies, yielding calibrated uncertainty estimates that correlate with execution quality and task success. Furthermore, we extend conformal prediction to the robot state space to detect outliers or unsafe states before failures occur, providing a simple yet effective failure detection mechanism that complements the action-level uncertainty. We evaluate ReconVLA in both simulation and real robot experiments across diverse manipulation tasks. Our results show that conformalized action predictions consistently improve failure anticipation, reduce catastrophic errors, and provide a calibrated measure of confidence without retraining or modifying the underlying VLA.