Toward Calibrated Mixture-of-Experts Under Distribution Shift

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a powerful paradigm for scaling model capacity while preserving efficient inference in large foundation models. However, most MoE models use a fixed top-$k$ expert selection policy, assigning the same expert budget to every token even when fewer experts may be sufficient. Inference-time dynamic top-$k$ routing can reduce computation without retraining, but existing methods often overlook the distributional shift caused by deviating from the training-time routing configuration. We show that reducing the number of activated experts consistently increases the RMS scale and variance of SMoE outputs, inducing a representation mismatch that contributes to downstream performance degradation in addition to the loss of expert capacity. To address this correctable component, we propose Layer-wise Distribution Alignment (LDA), a lightweight inference-time correction that uses layer-wise calibration statistics to align reduced-routing representations with the default configuration. Across multiple SMoE LLMs, benchmarks, and routing strategies, LDA recovers much of the performance lost induced by the distributional shift under reduced routing while preserving sparse-inference efficiency with negligible overhead.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) variants of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) route every token to a fixed number of experts $k$. Tokens differ in how uncertain the model is about them, so a single k over-spends on easy tokens and under-serves hard ones. We observe that the router's output distribution is already a per-token uncertainty signal: peaked mass indicates confidence, while a flat distribution indicates ambiguity. We introduce CARE (Confidence-Adaptive Routing of Experts), which admits experts in a nucleus fashion. Experts are activated in decreasing router weight until their cumulative mass reaches a threshold, with a small extension when the admitted experts disagree. A budget thermostat calibrates the threshold so that the average number of active experts matches any target. CARE is a drop-in, single-forward-pass rule with no extra parameters. Across eight commonsense benchmarks on LLaMA-3.1-8B and Qwen2.5-7B, as well as math, code, and knowledge tasks, CARE improves over fixed top-k MoE-LoRA at matched compute and matches the fixed-k=4 baseline while activating fewer experts. The same confidence and disagreement signals also improve out-of-distribution detection over MSP, entropy, and multi-pass proxies. We support the design with nucleus fidelity, budget optimality, and an epistemic reading of disagreement, and we release code.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models scale by activating only a small subset of experts per token. However, training such models remains challenging because top-$k$ routing is discrete and non-differentiable, requiring gradient estimators for expert selection whose design remains a central open problem. We introduce ProbMoE, a probabilistic routing framework that models expert selection as a distribution over cardinality-constrained expert subsets and formulates routing as probabilistic inference in this discrete subset space. We first propose ProbMoE Exact-$k$ routing, which samples $k$-expert subsets in the forward pass, and the backward pass uses gradients through each expert's exact marginal probability as a tractable surrogate for the true gradient. ProbMoE naturally generalizes to a dynamic-$k$ routing setting, where both training and inference constrain the routing cardinality to the same predefined range, allowing adaptive expert allocation per token. Across benchmarks and model backbones, ProbMoE Exact-$k$ achieves strong performance compared to competitive baselines, with improved expert utilization and routing diversity; ProbMoE Dynamic-$k$ achieves comparable performance with fewer activated experts.