Calibrated Uncertainty

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11 papers in the last four weeks, up 175% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. High-dimensional online calibration from harmonic weights

    Oct 6, 2026Maxwell Fishelson, Mehryar MohriCalibrated UncertaintyRecalibration

    Institute for Advanced Study. · Google Research and Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York.

  2. Impact of Data Augmentation on Confidence Calibration in Melanoma Classification

    Oct 5, 2026Morgan May, Simon Caton, Pierpaolo DondioSkin Lesion ClassificationCalibrated Uncertainty

    Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland · Research Ireland Centre for Research Training in Machine Learning, ML-Labs, Dublin, Ireland · University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland +1

  3. Sharp Integrality Gaps in Calibration Distance

    Oct 5, 2026Zinan Wang, Xinhao YangCalibrated UncertaintyRecalibration

    University of Manchester · University of Southern California

  4. Signal-Routed Temperature Scaling: Low-Capacity Risk-Conditioned Calibration for Small Validation Budgets

    Sep 30, 2026Wenhao Liang, Liangwei Nathan Zheng, Lin Yue +4RecalibrationCalibrated Uncertainty

    Adelaide University, Adelaide, Australia

  5. Calibrated Uncertainty for Informative Path Planning in Aquatic Environmental Monitoring

    Sep 28, 2026Samuel Yanes Luis, Alejandro Casado Pérez, Alejandro Mendoza Barrionuevo +3Calibrated UncertaintyPath Planning

    Department of Electronic Technology, University of Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain · Department of Electronic Engineering, University of Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain

  6. Transfer Calibrated Prediction Powered Inference

    Sep 28, 2026Aditya T. Vadlamani, Jae Ho Chang, Srinivasan Parthasarathy +1Domain AdaptationOnline Conformal Prediction

    The Ohio State University · Yale University

  7. Probabilistic electrical power demand forecasting with uncertainty quantification

    Sep 28, 2026Mahesh Neupane, Pragya Dhungana, Pradip Khatri +2Electricity Price ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Interconnection and Numbering Section Nepal Telecommunications Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Nepal Electricity Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care University of Bergen Bergen, Norway +1

  8. Augmented Feature Boosting for Multicalibration

    Sep 27, 2026Ira Globus-Harris, Inbal Livni NavonCalibrated UncertaintyRecalibration

    Cornell University · Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

  9. A Free Knob: Decoupling Calibration and Predictive Skill in Threshold-Based Evaluation

    Sep 27, 2026Md Tanveer Hossain Munim, Bijoy Ahmed Saiem, Al-Amin Sany +1Rare EventsCalibrated Uncertainty

    Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) · Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

  10. Marginal Calibration Does Not Compose: Hidden Dependence in Modular Robot Navigation

    Sep 20, 2026Rista BaralCalibrated UncertaintyRobot Navigation

    University of Delaware

  11. Bayesian Optimisation Using Product-of-Experts Gaussian Process Models with Uncertainty Calibration

    Sep 14, 2026Yean Hoon OngGaussian ProcessCalibrated Uncertainty

    University College London London, United Kingdom

  12. Calibrated Ambiguity in Multimodal Language Models: Humans reach for cultural references, while models describe the picture

    Sep 14, 2026Cody Kommers, Mingrui Ye, Evelyn Gius +4AmbiguityMultimodal Large Language Models

    King’s College London London, United Kingdom · University of Edinburgh Edinburgh, United Kingdom

  13. Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration

    Sep 12, 2026Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu +2Calibrated UncertaintyHeterogeneous Modeling Tools

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Xidian University Xi’an, China

  14. Distilling Image Prototypes for Guided Test-Time Adaptation

    Sep 9, 2026Liwen Wang, Xingbo Dong, Iman Yi Liao +4Stable Test-Time AdaptationTest-Time Adaptation

    Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Secure Artificial Intelligence, Anhui Provincial International Joint Research Center for Advanced Technology in Medical Imaging, School of Artificial Intelligence, Anhui University, Hefei 230093, China · School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham (Malaysia Campus), Selangor Darul Ehsan, 43500, Malaysia · Department of Engineering, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy +1

  15. Rethinking the Test-Time Prompt Tuning Objective from the Perspective of Calibration

    Aug 31, 2026Jungwon Choi, Hyeonseo Jang, Kibok Lee +1Soft Prompt TuningCalibrated Uncertainty

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chung-Ang University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Yonsei University

  16. Conditional Validity for Adaptive Modality Acquisition: When the Policy Chooses Its Own Calibration Group

    Aug 16, 2026Melika BaghiConformal Risk ControlAcquisition

    Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA

  17. Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

    Aug 12, 2026Coby PensoCalibrated UncertaintyOnline Conformal Prediction

    The Faculty of Engineering, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel

  18. Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces

    Aug 10, 2026Luís Marques, Kristian Popov, Dmitry BerensonCalibrated UncertaintyUncertainty

    Department of Robotics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA · Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA

  19. Physics-Informed Learning for Robust Acoustic Localization with Calibrated Uncertainty

    Aug 9, 2026Jennifer N. Kampe, Changwoo J. Lee, Xin Shen +5Sound Source LocalizationIndoor Localization

    Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland · Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA · 3Digital Services, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland +1

  20. Conformal Calibration for Multi-Modal Regression with Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Ilia AziziOnline Conformal PredictionMissing Modalities

    Department of Operations, HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne, Switzerland · BegooAI, Switzerland

  21. Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Alireza MoayedikiaMissing ModalitiesMultimodal Fusion

    Department of Business Technology and Entrepreneurship Swinburne University of Technology Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia

  22. Neuro-Symbolic Closed-Loop Control of Laser Powder Bed Fusion with an In-Loop Ontology

    Aug 6, 2026Gisuk Hong, Jaebong Cho, Hyunbo ChoLithographyModel Predictive Control

    aDepartment of Industrial and Management Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, 77 Cheongam-ro, Nam-gu, Pohang, 37673, South Korea

  23. From Keypoints to Predictive Distributions: Post-Hoc Uncertainty for YOLO-Pose Models

    Jul 29, 2026Alexej Klushyn, Juan Rivero Sesma, Florian Seligmann +3Calibrated UncertaintyKeypoint Detection

    Airbus Central Research & Technology · Airbus Commercial Aircraft · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology +2

  24. The Calibration Channel Determines the Bayes-Error Proxy: An Exact Law for Temperature-Induced Distortion

    Jul 20, 2026Shreyas Pradeepkumar KhandalePac-Bayesian TheoryCalibrated Uncertainty

    School of Computing Binghamton University (SUNY) Binghamton, NY, USA

  25. Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities

    Jul 20, 2026Matthew F. DixonLarge Language Model UncertaintyCalibrated Uncertainty

    Artificial Intelligence Finance Institute (AIFI), 69 Charlton St, New York, NY 10014, USA

  26. Posterior Variance Is a Constraint Map, Not an Error Map: Closed-Form Uncertainty for Radiative Gaussian Splatting in Sparse-View CT

    Jul 15, 2026Chulin Zhao, Yiran Xu, Shu LiuCalibrated UncertaintyGaussian Splatting

    1Dundee International Institute, Central South University · 2Central South University

  27. Efficient Sequential Calibration with O(T2/3−ε)O(T^{2/3-ε}) Error Bound

    Jul 14, 2026Zihan ZhangCalibrated UncertaintySurrogates

    Department of CSE, HKUST

  28. Condition-Stratified Robustness Analysis of Post-Hoc Calibration Methods for Probabilistic Classifiers

    Jul 13, 2026Gurdeep Singh VirdeePost-HocCalibrated Uncertainty

    Fergana State Technical University, Uzbekistan

  29. Active Learning for Cascaded Object Detection: Balancing Coverage and Uncertainty in Table Extraction Pipelines

    Jul 1, 2026Eliott Thomas, Mickael Coustaty, Aurelie Joseph +3Active LearningObject Detection

    L3i, La Rochelle Université, La Rochelle, France · Yooz, Aimargues, France

  30. A Bayesian latent Gaussian process framework for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification

    Jun 27, 2026Geoffrey Davis, Ashwin RenganathanAerodynamicsCalibrated Uncertainty

    Undergraduate research assistant, Aerospace Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 · Assistant professor, Aerospace Engineering and the Institute of Computational and Data Science (ICDS), The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802

  31. Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA

    Jun 25, 2026Eren Senoglu, Federico Toschi, Nicolo Brunello +2Medical Visual Question AnsweringMultimodal Large Language Models

    Politecnico di Milano

  32. Bayesian Adaptation Gym: A Benchmark for the Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation of Multi-Modal Language Models

    Jun 20, 2026Colin Samplawski, Ramneet Kaur, Manoj Acharya +2Large Language Model AdaptationLarge Language Model Uncertainty

    Neuro-Symbolic Computing and Intelligence Research Group, Computer Science Laboratory, SRI International

  33. Embedding Linear Equality Constraints in Probabilistic Neural Networks for Dynamic Modelling

    Jun 19, 2026Matthew Marsh, Benoit Chachuat, Antonio del Rio ChanonaInequality ConstraintsChemical Process Systems

    The Sargent Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

  34. Toward Calibrated Mixture-of-Experts Under Distribution Shift

    Jun 18, 2026Gina Wong, Drew Prinster, Suchi Saria +2Mixture-Of-ExpertsDistribution Shifts

    Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.

  35. Correcting Sensor-Induced Distribution Drift with Wasserstein Adversarial Learning

    Jun 17, 2026Saraa Ali, Vladimir Bocharnikov, Fedor Ratnikov +3RecalibrationDistribution Shifts

    Laboratory of Methods for Big Data Analysis, HSE University, Pokrovsky Boulevard 11, Moscow 109028, Russia

  36. Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification

    Jun 9, 2026Arthur HoarauDynamic Epistemic LogicCalibrated Uncertainty

    Université de Lorraine, CentraleSupélec · Loria, CNRS, Metz, France

  37. Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising

    Jun 8, 2026Prashant Shekhar, Caroline HowardCalibrated UncertaintyAds

    Department of Mathematics Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL, USA

  38. No-Harm Physics-Informed Inverse Learning with Residual-Calibrated Uncertainty

    Jun 5, 2026Ronald KatendeCalibrated UncertaintyReconstruction Error

    Department of Mathematics Kabale University Kikungiri Hill, Katuna Road, Kabale, Uganda

  39. APIC: Amortized Physics-Informed Calibration using Neural Processes

    Jun 2, 2026Aishwarya Venkataramanan, Sai Karthikeya Vemuri, Joachim DenzlerPhysics-Informed LearningCalibrated Uncertainty

    Computer Vision Group, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany

  40. Online Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Uncertainty-Driven Dual-Expert Calibration

    May 27, 2026Haonan Wen, Hanyang Chen, Songhe FengTime SeriesCalibrated Uncertainty

    Key Laboratory of Big Data & Artificial Intelligence in Transportation (Beijing Jiaotong University), Ministry of Education School of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing, China · School of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing, China · Tangshan Research Institute, Beijing Jiaotong University Tangshan, China

  41. Calibrated Inference for the Conditional Average Treatment Effect in the Few-Placebo Regime via Gaussian Processes

    May 26, 2026Eichi UeharaHeterogeneous Treatment EffectsCausal Inferences

    AFLO

  42. Proper Calibeating

    May 26, 2026Dean P. Foster, Sergiu HartCalibrated UncertaintyForecast

    Department of Statistics, Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Amazon, New York. · Institute of Mathematics, Department of Economics, and Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

  43. Pointwise Metrics Mislead: An Evaluation Protocol for Multimodal Inverse Problems

    May 21, 2026Mads H. Baattrup, Jörn Bach, Laurids Jeppe +4Inverse ProblemCalibrated Uncertainty

    Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron Hamburg, Germany · CERN Geneva, Switzerland · University of Hamburg Hamburg, Germany +1

  44. Why Semantic Entropy Fails: Geometry-Aware and Calibrated Uncertainty for Policy Optimization

    May 20, 2026Zheyuan Zhang, Kaiwen Shi, Han Bao +3Frictive Policy OptimizationCalibrated Uncertainty

    University of Notre Dame · †Corresponding Author

  45. Reading Calibrated Uncertainty from Language Model Trajectories

    May 19, 2026Aliai Eusebi, Alexander Herzog, Xiaoyu Liang +3Large Language Model UncertaintyCalibrated Uncertainty

    University College London, London, United Kingdom · Core46, London, United Kingdom

  46. Uncertainty Reliability Under Domain Shift: An Investigation for Data-Driven Blood Pressure Estimation in Photoplethysmography

    May 18, 2026Mohammad Moulaeifard, Ciaran Bench, Philip J. Aston +1Cuffless Blood Pressure EstimationCalibrated Uncertainty

    AI4Health Department, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany · Department of Data Science and AI, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, United Kingdom · School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Surrey, Surrey, United Kingdom

  47. Separating Intrinsic Ambiguity from Estimation Uncertainty in Deep Generative Models for Linear Inverse Problems

    May 14, 2026Yuxin Guo, Dongrui Deng, Pulkit GroverCalibrated UncertaintyBayesian Inverse Problems

    1Neuroscience Institute, Carnegie Mellon University · 2Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University

  48. Local Conformal Calibration of Dynamics Uncertainty from Semantic Images

    May 13, 2026Luís Marques, Dmitry BerensonCalibrated UncertaintyUncertainty

    Robotics Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA

  49. Exact Stiefel Optimization for Probabilistic PLS: Closed-Form Updates, Error Bounds, and Calibrated Uncertainty

    May 12, 2026Haoran Hu, Xingce WangLeast SquaresCalibrated Uncertainty

    School of Artificial Intelligence Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875, China

  50. UCCI: Calibrated Uncertainty for Cost-Optimal LLM Cascade Routing

    May 11, 2026Varun KotteLarge Language Model RoutingInference Cost

    Independent Researcher.

  51. Unified Approach for Weakly Supervised Multicalibration

    May 11, 2026Futoshi Futami, Takashi IshidaCalibrated Uncertainty

    The University of Osaka / RIKEN AIP / The University of Tokyo · The University of Tokyo / RIKEN AIP

  52. The Minimax Rate of Second-Order Calibration

    May 8, 2026Kamil Ciosek, Banafsheh Rafiee, Sina Ghiassian +1Calibrated UncertaintyMinimax Rate

    Spotify

  53. Implicit Multi-Camera System Calibration Using Gaussian Processes

    May 8, 2026Ivan De Boi, Bart Ribbens, Veronika Golanova +2Camera IntrinsicsCalibrated Uncertainty

    1InViLab, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 179, Antwerp, 2020, Belgium.

  54. Online Bayesian Calibration under Gradual and Abrupt System Changes

    May 7, 2026Yang Xu, Chiwoo ParkCalibrated UncertaintyDigital Twins

    Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195

  55. Optimal Uncertainty-Aware Calibration for the AX=YB Problem

    May 6, 2026Yanjia Chen, Xiangfei Li, Huan Zhao +4Calibrated UncertaintyEgocentric Motion Generation

    State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing Equipment and Technology and the School of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China.

  56. Noise2Params: Unification and Parameter Determination from Noise via a Probabilistic Event Camera Model

    May 4, 2026Owen Root, Julinda Mujo, Min XuSingle-Photon Avalanche DiodeCalibrated Uncertainty

    Department of Physics and Astronomy, CUNY Hunter College, 695 Park Ave, New York, 10065, NY, USA.

  57. The Sample Complexity of Multicalibration

    Apr 23, 2026Natalie Collina, Jiuyao Lu, Georgy Noarov +1Optimal Sample ComplexityCalibrated Uncertainty

    University of Pennsylvania

  58. Calibrating conditional risk

    Apr 22, 2026Andrey Vasilyev, Yikai Wang, Xiaocheng Li +1Conformal Risk ControlCalibrated Uncertainty

    Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London · Department of Statistics and Operations Research, UNC-Chapel Hill

  59. Calibrating Scientific Foundation Models with Inference-Time Stochastic Attention

    Apr 21, 2026Akash Yadav, Taiwo A. Adebiyi, Ruda ZhangCalibrated UncertaintyPredictive Uncertainty

    University of Houston

  60. Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Calibration for Bayesian Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysis

    Feb 12, 2026Hua Xu, Julián D. Arias-Londoño, Juan I. Godino-LlorenteCalibrated UncertaintyMedical Images

    Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Telecomunicación Universidad Politécnica de Madrid 28040, Madrid, Spain