Economic Transformation and Cultural Change: Evidence from Two Centuries of French Drama
Authors: T. D. Oliveira, L. A. Attilio, M. J. Davila-Fernandez
Organizations: Centre for Digital Humanities, University of Tartu · Federal University of Ouro Preto · Colorado State University
Abstract
How do large-scale economic transformations shape cultural production? We address this question by combining computational linguistics, econometrics, and formal modelling, using French drama as a well-documented empirical laboratory. Applying latent Dirichlet allocation to a corpus of 1,215 theatrical texts published between 1700 and 1900, we show that aristocratic discourse centred on sovereignty and political authority was gradually displaced by bourgeois and household economic themes as French capitalism developed. Bayesian vector autoregressive models with max-share shock identification suggest a temporal shift in the literary response to economic shocks: bourgeois everyday-life themes reacted to GDP shocks in the eighteenth century, whereas household-economic concerns became responsive only after 1820, amid accelerating industrialisation. A discrete-choice model shows that peer effects among authors and sensitivity to prevailing economic conditions can jointly account for these dynamics. Monte Carlo simulations reproduce the observed historical trajectory with reasonable fidelity. These findings offer a quantitative framework for understanding how economic transformations propagate into cultural production through identifiable social mechanisms, contributing to the study of cultural evolution and the long-run relationship between institutions and literary discourse.
Creativity is often framed as the production of novelty, yet many cultural works emerge through transformation of earlier artifacts and not through isolated invention. Drawing on theories of imitation by Gabriel Tarde and James Mark Baldwin, this paper models creativity as selective transformation across multiple levels of textual representation. We introduce a multi-level framework that compares literary texts across lexical, semantic, conceptual, structural, and narrative dimensions using directional alignment and control calibrated similarity measures. Applying the model to historically documented literary relationships, we show that different pairs preserve source structure at different representational levels while diverging in others. These transformation profiles provide a quantitative method for characterizing how imitation persists and where creative divergence occurs within literary works.
Digitized musical heritage collections offer new opportunities to examine how stylistic traditions change over historical time, but computational analyses often reduce musical works to static classifications or similarity scores. This article proposes a representation-to-dynamics framework for studying cross-cultural harmonic change in Western art music. Starting from symbolic chord sequences, we derive contextual chord embeddings, project work-level representations into a shared harmonic space, and reconstruct country-level trajectories through temporally causal Kalman filtering. These trajectories are then modeled with DeGroot and Friedkin--Johnsen dynamics, yielding interpretable influence-like networks and estimates of stylistic anchoring. We apply the framework to a curated corpus of 480 dated works from 1875 to 1940 across Russia, France, Germany, Austria, and a heterogeneous ''Others'' group. Models fitted on 1875--1925 are evaluated through recursive forecasts for 1930--1940, testing whether the estimated dependency structure remains informative across a potentially changing historical and stylistic regime. The estimated trajectories and influence patterns are broadly consistent with established music-historical accounts of late Romantic and early modernist exchange, including the close relationship between German and Austrian traditions and historically plausible cross-currents between Russian and French traditions. PCA-variance-weighted estimation provides modest improvements while preserving a single interpretable influence network. Rather than treating the estimated matrices as direct causal evidence, the framework offers a reproducible quantitative layer for cultural heritage research, complementing archival and musicological interpretation.
We propose an AI economist agent for economic and financial scenario analysis. Scenario design often requires analysts to assess emerging risks with limited historical precedent, combine information from many sources, and translate qualitative mechanisms into internally consistent quantitative paths. Large language models (LLMs) can search and synthesize this information, but fluent narratives alone do not establish the model-based calculations needed for economic conclusions. Our framework uses LLM agents to plan the analysis, retrieve relevant evidence, and organize economic mechanisms, while registered quantitative models generate numerical outcomes and predefined tests determine whether intermediate results can be used in the final report. We apply the framework to European macro-financial stress scenarios and bank capital analysis. The empirical analysis evaluates retrieval of economic mechanisms, scenario construction, model execution, and report generation under a historical information cutoff. The results show how the AI economist agent can combine flexible evidence retrieval and scenario construction while keeping the resulting analysis linked to identifiable sources and explicit model calculations.