Modeling Stylistic Co-evolution in Symbolic Music Heritage Collections

Digitized musical heritage collections offer new opportunities to examine how stylistic traditions change over historical time, but computational analyses often reduce musical works to static classifications or similarity scores. This article proposes a representation-to-dynamics framework for studying cross-cultural harmonic change in Western art music. Starting from symbolic chord sequences, we derive contextual chord embeddings, project work-level representations into a shared harmonic space, and reconstruct country-level trajectories through temporally causal Kalman filtering. These trajectories are then modeled with DeGroot and Friedkin--Johnsen dynamics, yielding interpretable influence-like networks and estimates of stylistic anchoring. We apply the framework to a curated corpus of 480 dated works from 1875 to 1940 across Russia, France, Germany, Austria, and a heterogeneous ''Others'' group. Models fitted on 1875--1925 are evaluated through recursive forecasts for 1930--1940, testing whether the estimated dependency structure remains informative across a potentially changing historical and stylistic regime. The estimated trajectories and influence patterns are broadly consistent with established music-historical accounts of late Romantic and early modernist exchange, including the close relationship between German and Austrian traditions and historically plausible cross-currents between Russian and French traditions. PCA-variance-weighted estimation provides modest improvements while preserving a single interpretable influence network. Rather than treating the estimated matrices as direct causal evidence, the framework offers a reproducible quantitative layer for cultural heritage research, complementing archival and musicological interpretation.