Adapt Only When It Pays: Budgeted Decision-Loss Priority for Delayed Online Time-Series Adaptation

Online adaptation can help edge time-series forecasting under distribution drift, but its measured benefit is sensitive to evaluation choices. We study six public multivariate streams, including building-sensor and smart-meter data, under a leakage-free streaming protocol. We identify two additional sources of comparison bias. First, the warmup budget of the static baseline has a two-sided effect: insufficient warmup undertrains the baseline, whereas excessive warmup can degrade its pre-drift generalization. Across six dataset-backbone settings, the estimated adaptation benefit changes by 3.0 to 18.8 percentage points (pp) over the 1,000-20,000-step warmup range. Second, comparing SGD with momentum (SGD+m) and Adam at a shared default learning rate conflates optimizer quality with rate sensitivity. We select both the warmup budget and each optimizer's online rate using a held-out pre-drift validation slice without accessing test data. Under this validation-only procedure, Adam outperforms SGD+m in 310 of 360 evaluated cells, while 4 Adam cells remain below the static baseline. We further characterize accuracy against adaptation-state memory and A100-measured per-update latency for full, head-only, and calibration-based adaptation. In the evaluated PatchTST frontier settings, several parameter-efficient variants are nondominated on the adaptation-state-memory axis. Smart-meter analyses also show that reported gains depend on meter-selection rules. These findings support a validation-only commissioning procedure, while target-device latency and energy remain to be measured. Code, data, and all reported numbers: https://github.com/keiotakmin/tsf-edge-adaptation.

Decision-focused learning trains predictive models end-to-end against downstream decision loss, but online settings suffer delayed feedback: outcomes may not arrive for many environment interactions. We identify \emph{staleness amplification}, a failure mode unique to bilevel optimization under delay, in which gradient staleness couples with inner-solver sensitivity to inflate regret beyond single-level delay theory. We prove that any black-box delayed optimizer incurs an irreducible regret cost from inner-solver approximation error, and that gradient staleness contributes a quadratically growing transport error without bilevel-aware correction. Our algorithm, \textbf{IGT-OMD}, applies Implicit Gradient Transport to hypergradients within Online Mirror Descent, re-evaluating stale gradients at the current parameters using stored inner solutions. This method reduces transport error from a quadratic to a linear dependence on delay and achieves the first sublinear regret bound for delayed bilevel optimization with queue-length-adaptive step sizes. Controlled experiments provide a \emph{mechanistic fingerprint}: transport benefit is exactly $0.0\%$ ($p=1.00$) at unit delay and grows monotonically to $9.5\%$ at fifty rounds ($p<0.001$), isolating the correction's effect. On Linear Quadratic Regulator, Warcraft shortest-path, and Sinkhorn optimal transport, IGT-OMD reduces decision loss by $17$--$55\%$ relative to single-level baselines, with phase transitions matching the theory.

We study online prediction under distribution shift, where inputs arrive chronologically and outcomes are revealed only after prediction. In this setting, predictors must remain stable in quiet regimes yet adapt when regimes shift, and the right adaptation memory is unknown in advance. We propose MELO (Memory-hedged Exponentially Weighted Least-Squares Online aggregation), a model-agnostic method that hedges across adaptation scales: it wraps any non-anticipating base-predictor pool with exponentially weighted least-squares (EWLS) adaptation experts at multiple forgetting factors, and aggregates raw and EWLS-adapted forecasts with MLpol, a parameter-free online aggregation rule. Under boundedness conditions, we establish deterministic oracle inequalities showing that it competes with both the best raw predictor and the best bounded, time-varying affine combinations of the base predictions, up to a path-length-dependent tracking cost and a sublinear aggregation overhead. We evaluate MELO on French national electricity-load forecasting through the COVID-19 lockdown using no regime indicators, lockdown dates, or policy covariates. MELO reduces overall RMSE by 34.7% relative to base-only MLpol and achieves lower overall RMSE than a TabICL reference supplied with an external COVID policy-response covariate. Moreover, MELO requires only lightweight per-step recursive updates without model retraining.