cs.LGSep 1, 2026

When Does Online Adaptation Pay on the Edge? A Leakage-Free Evaluation of Warmup, Learning-Rate Selection, and Resource Trade-offs for Time-Series Forecasting

Authors: Takumi Fujimoto, Hiroaki Nishi

Abstract

Online adaptation can help edge time-series forecasting under distribution drift, but its measured benefit is sensitive to evaluation choices. We study six public multivariate streams, including building-sensor and smart-meter data, under a leakage-free streaming protocol. We identify two additional sources of comparison bias. First, the warmup budget of the static baseline has a two-sided effect: insufficient warmup undertrains the baseline, whereas excessive warmup can degrade its pre-drift generalization. Across six dataset-backbone settings, the estimated adaptation benefit changes by 3.0 to 18.8 percentage points (pp) over the 1,000-20,000-step warmup range. Second, comparing SGD with momentum (SGD+m) and Adam at a shared default learning rate conflates optimizer quality with rate sensitivity. We select both the warmup budget and each optimizer's online rate using a held-out pre-drift validation slice without accessing test data. Under this validation-only procedure, Adam outperforms SGD+m in 310 of 360 evaluated cells, while 4 Adam cells remain below the static baseline. We further characterize accuracy against adaptation-state memory and A100-measured per-update latency for full, head-only, and calibration-based adaptation. In the evaluated PatchTST frontier settings, several parameter-efficient variants are nondominated on the adaptation-state-memory axis. Smart-meter analyses also show that reported gains depend on meter-selection rules. These findings support a validation-only commissioning procedure, while target-device latency and energy remain to be measured. Code, data, and all reported numbers: https://github.com/keiotakmin/tsf-edge-adaptation.

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Topic pending
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Sep 14, 2026stat.ME

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Jun 12, 2026cs.LG

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The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.
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