Parameter Efficient Hybrid Transformer (PEHT) for Network Traffic Prediction via Dynamic Urban Congestion Integration

Accurate forecasting of cellular network traffic is essential for network planning, resource allocation, and quality-of-service assurance in modern mobile communication systems. Real-world traffic often exhibits bursty endogenous dynamics and disturbances triggered by external urban events, which makes reliable prediction highly challenging. Most existing spatiotemporal traffic forecasting methods primarily focus on intrinsic traffic patterns or structural relationships within a single modality, and rarely model burst behavior together with exogenous contextual signals. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{MSPF-Net}, a multimodal cellular traffic forecasting framework that integrates external contextual information. Specifically, MSPF-Net consists of a Spatiotemporal-Frequency Traffic Encoder for capturing temporal, spatial, and spectral traffic patterns, a Peak Enhancement Module for extracting burst-aware representations of sudden spikes, a News Context Representation Module for encoding urban news streams into exogenous contextual embeddings, and a Dynamic Fusion Prediction Module for adaptively integrating these heterogeneous signals to generate forecasts. Experiments on the Milano, Trento, and LTE traffic datasets demonstrate that jointly modeling traffic dynamics, burst patterns, and news contextual signals can effectively improve forecasting performance.

Traffic prediction is fundamental to intelligent transportation systems and urban computing, yet many cities continue to suffer from traffic data scarcity due to limited sensor deployment and uneven urban development. Cross-city knowledge transfer has thus attracted increasing attention, enabling data-rich cities to assist data-scarce ones. However, centralized approaches raise privacy concerns, while existing federated methods struggle with pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity across cities. To address these challenges, we propose MoE-FedTP, a personalized federated cross-city spatiotemporal prediction framework based on lightweight Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) networks. MoE-FedTP first employs spatiotemporal neural networks to extract features from both source and target cities, then introduces a set of expert networks derived from different source cities through partial parameter sharing. A gating mechanism dynamically fuses the experts to capture diverse traffic dynamics, achieving fine-grained modeling of urban heterogeneity while preserving privacy. Experiments on four real-world traffic datasets show that MoE-FedTP consistently outperforms state-of-the-art cross-city and federated learning baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing prediction accuracy for data-scarce cities.

Traffic flow prediction is a core supporting technology for intelligent transportation systems. It uses historical data to infer future traffic dynamics in specific areas, thereby helping to alleviate congestion and improve resource allocation efficiency. Traditional neural networks struggle to break through accuracy limits due to their reliance on singular feature modeling, while large language models (LLMs) suffer from insufficient capture of spatial topological information and mining spatiotemporal correlation. This study proposes a Dynamic Fusion Large Language Model (DF-LLM) for traffic flow prediction. The model incorporates three core components: spatiotemporal embedding module, spatiotemporal fusion module, and LLM backbone. The spatiotemporal embedding module enables synergistic representation of multi-scale spatiotemporal features. The spatiotemporal fusion module integrates spatial topology and dynamic dependencies via graph convolution. The LLM backbone adopts a differentiated parameter adaptation strategy to balance training efficiency and traffic data adaptability. Additionally, it introduces a context aggregation attention module to strengthens global dependencies. More importantly, the LLM backbone takes the residual connections to mitigate the gradient vanishing in deep networks. Experiments show that DF-LLM has achieved better performance by comparing the metrics on all the four datasets.