Golden Hour Divide: Trauma Care Accessibility and Resource Vulnerability in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has experienced a decade of progressive forest degradation and rising atmospheric pollution, yet district-level respiratory admissions have paradoxically declined, pointing to the confounding role of healthcare access. This study addresses that gap by constructing an 11-year (2014-2024) panel dataset across all 25 administrative districts, integrating satellite-derived vegetation indices, fire radiative power, pollutant concentrations (particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2)), carbon flux metrics and population-normalized respiratory admission rates. Two temporally validated XGBoost models were created for annual district-level respiratory rate (R^2 = 0.937) and monthly PM2.5 concentration (R^2 = 0.976) with generalization validated in 21 out of 25 districts (Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) <= 20%). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis established that cumulative air quality burden is the overwhelming driver of respiratory rate variance (80.1%), ahead of forest degradation (15.6%) and fire activity (4.3%). The Forest-Air-Health (FAH) Risk Index used these SHAP-derived weights to find the districts with the highest risk: Colombo (FAH = 0.802), Gampaha (0.708), and Kalutara (0.682). These findings present the inaugural evidence-based, district-level framework correlating environmental degradation with respiratory health in Sri Lanka, establishing a quantitative basis for focused public health and environmental policy.

At Noora Health, our nurses answer more than 50,000 medical queries per month on our WhatsApp-based service that provides caregivers with on-demand support. Their most time-critical task is emergency triage: deciding which queries need immediate in-person attention. To support them, we built a system that uses a large language model (LLM) to classify whether a message is an emergency and provide a rationale for interpretability. But the system was opaque: analyzing mistakes meant reading reasoning chains for each message, which is infeasible at our scale. Prompt changes meant re-running a full evaluation to prevent regressions, which was both costly and operationally challenging. Clinicians follow a decision tree to make this call, but it was never documented or passed to the model, which relied on a flat list of danger signs. To address these issues, we decomposed triage into two steps: an LLM extracts canonical symptoms and patient context from the query using a clinician-authored vocabulary, and a deterministic rule engine captures the scenarios that indicate an emergency. We show that the new system raised recall from 0.565 to 0.810 and F1 from 0.606 to 0.702, with structured rules driving most of the accuracy gains while the decomposition provides auditability: clinical experts can inspect each stage of the new system to see whether the query was mistranslated, symptoms were incorrectly extracted, patient context was wrongly inferred, or the necessary rules were missing. They can add new rules independently without causing regressions and avoid running costly evaluations. Since deployment, the new system has triaged 152,421 patient queries and flagged 28,535 (18.7%) as emergencies. The over-escalation rate has been 17.8%, without any increase in missed emergencies. Clinicians have also added 48 new rules since deployment, evidence of the faster correction loop we set out to build.

Accurate and consistent Emergency Severity Index (ESI) assignment remains a persistent challenge in emergency departments, where highly variable free-text triage documentation contributes to mistriage and workflow inefficiencies. This study evaluates whether open-source small language models (SLMs) can serve as reliable, privacy-preserving decision-support tools for clinical triage. We systematically compared multiple SLMs across diverse prompting pipelines and found that clinical vignettes, concise summaries of triage narratives, yielded the most accurate predictions. The SLM, Qwen2.5-7B, demonstrated the strongest balance of accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency. Through large-scale domain adaptation using expert-curated and silver-standard pediatric triage data, fine-tuned Qwen2.5-7B models substantially reduced discordance and clinically significant errors, outperforming all baseline SLMs and advanced proprietary large language models (LLMs, e.g., GPT-4o). These findings highlight the feasibility of institution-specific SLMs for reliable, privacy-preserving ESI decision support and underscore the importance of targeted fine-tuning over more complex inference strategies.