Bayesian Uncertainty Propagation for Agentic RAG Pipelines: A Proof-of-Concept Study on Multi-Hop Question Answering

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) depends critically on the quality and granularity of retrieved evidence. Large retrieval units preserve context but often introduce irrelevant content, which can dilute answer bearing evidence and worsen long context utilization. Fine-grained units are more compact, but they may be difficult to retrieve reliably because short chunks can lack semantic, lexical, or bridging cues needed to match the query. We propose Uncertainty-aware Multi-Granularity RAG (UMG-RAG), a training-free hybrid retrieval framework that treats chunk granularity as query-specific reliability estimation. Instead of training a new retriever or modifying the generator, UMG-RAG uses existing dense and sparse retrievers as complementary experts across multiple chunk granularities. For each query, it converts each expert-granularity score list into an evidence distribution, estimates reliability from distribution entropy, and fuses candidates according to query-specific semantic, lexical, and granularity confidence. We further introduce UMGP-RAG, a parent promotion variant that uses fine-grained hits to locate relevant evidence while returning broader non-redundant parent chunks for local coherence. Experiments on question answering benchmarks show that uncertainty-aware fusion and parent promotion improve generation quality while maintaining a lightweight, plug-and-play retrieval pipeline.

Large language models (LLMs) can enhance factuality via retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), but applying RAG to every query is unnecessary when the model-only answer is reliable. This motivates cascaded RAG: each query is first handled by an LLM-only branch, escalated to a RAG fallback only if the primary branch is uncertain, and abstained from when neither branch is sufficiently trustworthy. However, calibrating such cascades stage by stage may be conservative, since the final utility depends on joint uncertainty thresholding of LLM-only and RAG. In this work, we develop BalanceRAG to certify threshold pairs at a target risk level. Given uncertainty scores from the two branches, BalanceRAG frames each threshold pair as an operating point on a two-dimensional lattice and identifies safe operating points using sequential graphical testing. This enables risk-adaptive threshold calibration, controlling the system-level error rate among accepted points, while retaining more examples. Furthermore, BalanceRAG extends to multi-risk calibration, allowing retrieval usage to be bounded together with the selection-conditioned risk. Experiments on three open-domain question answering (QA) benchmarks across multiple LLM backbones demonstrate that BalanceRAG meets prescribed risk levels, preserves higher coverage and more accepted correct examples, and reduces unnecessary retrieval calls compared with always-on RAG.

While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances LLM performance, it does not eliminate hallucinations, making accurate detection essential. Uncertainty-based methods are attractive for this purpose because they can be integrated into real-world pipelines with little overhead. One of the most widely used uncertainty signals is predictive entropy. We show, however, that entropy can be unreliable in RAG settings and trace this limitation to two opposing internal effects. Induction heads, which copy patterns from earlier context, causally support correct responses and lower predictive entropy, but they also appear to co-activate entropy neurons that push it back up. As a result, correct, context-grounded responses can still receive high uncertainty scores. To address this, we propose INTRYGUE (Induction-Aware Entropy Gating for Uncertainty Estimation), a training-free, mechanistically grounded method that gates predictive entropy by an attention-based estimate of induction-head activity. Evaluated across four RAG-style benchmarks and six open-source LLMs (4B to 13B parameters), INTRYGUE performs competitively against a wide range of baselines, matching or exceeding the strongest of them in most settings. Our findings suggest that hallucination detection in RAG benefits from combining predictive uncertainty with interpretable internal signals of context utilization.