Adoption and Ecosystem Health: A Longitudinal Analysis of Open-Source Multi-Agent Frameworks

Static benchmarks measure what AI agents can do at a fixed point in time but not how they are adopted, maintained, or experienced in deployment. We introduce AgentPulse, a continuous evaluation framework scoring 50 agents across 10 workload categories along four factors (Benchmark Performance, Adoption Signals, Community Sentiment, and Ecosystem Health) aggregated from 18 real-time signals across GitHub, package registries, IDE marketplaces, social platforms, and benchmark leaderboards. Three analyses ground the framework. The four factors capture largely complementary information (n=50; $ρ_{\max}=0.61$ for Adoption-Ecosystem, all others $|ρ| \leq 0.37$). A circularity-controlled test (n=35) shows the Benchmark+Sentiment sub-composite, which contains no GitHub-derived signals, predicts external adoption proxies it does not aggregate: GitHub stars ($ρ_s=0.52$, $p<0.01$) and Stack Overflow question volume ($ρ_s=0.49$, $p<0.01$), with VS Code installs ($ρ_s=0.44$, $p<0.05$) reported as illustrative given that only 11 of 35 agents have non-zero installs. On the n=11 subset with published SWE-bench scores, composite and benchmark-only rankings are nearly uncorrelated ($ρ_s=0.25$; 9 of 11 agents shift by at least 2 ranks), driven by a strong negative Adoption-Capability correlation among closed-source high-capability agents within this subset. This is precisely why we rest the framework's validity claim on the broader n=35 test rather than the SWE-bench overlap. AgentPulse surfaces deployment signal absent from benchmarks; it is a methodology, not a ground-truth ranking. The framework, all collected signals, scoring outputs, and evaluation harness are released under CC BY 4.0.

Generative AI coding agents are entering the open-source supply chain, yet their diverse and often invisible traces leave their prevalence poorly understood. We introduce a multi-layered detection framework that integrates configuration-file scanning, commit-message analysis, author-identity matching, and bot-signature lookup across World of Code (180M+ Git repositories), classifying agent traces into four behavioral types. No single method captures more than a fraction of activity: multi-method detection identifies 850,157 Claude Code commits in one snapshot, of which bot-account lookup_the signal most adoption studies rely on_recovers only 28,154 (3.3%), a 30x relative-recall gap, so single-signal prevalence estimates are biased low by at least this factor. Every detection pattern is hand-validated (495 labels) with per-cell precision and Wilson confidence intervals. Across snapshots from December 2024 to April 2026, commit-attributed agents generate over 320,000 commits per month; Claude Code leads (886,122 commits across 17,295 projects) and dominates silent, configuration-file-only adoption (21,078 projects). Compared against an independent pull-request census (AIDev), the two channels capture nearly disjoint agent populations_a PR census misses 79% of commit-detected Claude Code adopters and essentially all Codex adopters_and different kinds of work: PR-deployed cloud agents (Codex, Cursor) surface as feature work, while commit-deployed in-editor agents (Claude Code, OpenHands, Aider) surface as maintenance. The observed work profile follows deployment and detection mode rather than the tool itself, so no single channel is representative.

Agentic coding tools are increasingly capable of generating and submitting pull requests (PRs) to software projects, introducing new forms of human-agent collaboration in software development. While prior studies have examined PR-level outcomes of agent-generated contributions, less is known about how agentic coding tools are adopted and managed at the project level. In this paper, we analyze 25,264 agentic PRs from 2,361 popular GitHub repositories to investigate (1) the adoption of agentic coding tools, (2) project-level agentic PR productivity, and (3) human-agent collaboration patterns. Our results show that the median repository generates only one to two agentic PRs during a three-month period, indicating that intensive adoption remains concentrated in a small subset of projects. At the same time, small projects (1-5 contributors) exhibit higher participation ratios and average levels of agentic PR activity than medium-sized and large projects. We also observe substantial variation in project-level agentic PR productivity. While a small number of projects exceed an industry-reported estimate of 36 PRs per participant during the three-month observation period, most projects remain below this threshold. Finally, human-agent collaboration is dominated by a single-human oversight model, in which one developer reviews and/or modifies the agent's contributions, while multi-human collaboration patterns remain uncommon. These findings provide early empirical evidence on how open-source projects organize human oversight around agentic coding tools and suggest that successful integration of agent-generated contributions depends not only on advances in agent capabilities but also on the human and organizational processes that govern their use. Because this study captures an early snapshot of agent adoption, future work should continue to track how adoption patterns evolve over time.