Early Layers

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8 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 41

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Forecasting the Growth of Social Media Information Cascades: Towards Human-in-the-Loop Misinformation Triage
Oct 5, 2026Ansh Gupta, Abhiram Gorle, Aayush Rajesh +1Triage Early Warning
The Overlake School · Stanford University
Prediction Is Not Detection: Evaluating Pre-Recognition Claims in Longitudinal Clinical AI
Sep 22, 2026Jing Yang, Long R. Jiao, Xiujun Cai +1Clinical Prediction Early Layers
School of Biomedical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China · Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London W2 1NY, UK · Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310016, China
Adapting Boltz-2 with limited experimental activity data improves early enrichment in virtual screening
Sep 21, 2026Kairi Furui, Masahito OhueScreening Drug Discovery
Department of Computer Science, School of Computing, Institute of Science Tokyo, Yokohama 226-8501, Japan
An Unexpected Robot Policy: Early Evaluations of GPT-6 Astra on RoboDojo and Beyond
Sep 21, 2026Wenbo Zhang, Kaixuan Wang, Yutao Ouyang +9Robot Policies Embodied Artificial Intelligence
RoboProbe · RoboDojo · The University of Hong Kong +5
Anticipatory Robot Goalkeeping via Monotone Optimal Stopping
Sep 21, 2026Hao E. Zhang, Ruize Geng, Yisen Li +8Robot Systems Optimal Stopping
Carnegie Mellon University · University of Texas at Arlington · General Motors
Detecting Deceptive Recruitment: A Signal-theoretic Machine Learning Framework for Early Identification of Labour Exploitation
Sep 17, 2026Sajid Siraj, Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Amin Vafadarnikjoo +1Jobs Artificial Intelligence Detection
Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK · COMSATS University, Wah Campus, Islamabad, Pakistan · Sheffield University Management School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK +1
Temporally Consistent Graph Extraction and Matching for Longitudinal Angiographic Images
Sep 15, 2026Linus Kreitner, Laurin Lux, Carmen Baumann +2Graph Representations Early Layers
Chair for AI in Healthcare and Medicine, Technical University of Munich (TUM) and TUM University Hospital, Munich, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany · Ophthalmology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany +1
Design of a Deep Learning Credit Risk Early Warning System Integrating Multi-source Heterogeneous Data
Sep 14, 2026LiYang Wang, Zhen Zhong, Zhen Tian +2Credit Risk Prediction Early Warning
Washington University in St. Louis · Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA · Georgetown University +5
Intelligence Under Time Constraints: Rethinking Test-Time Compute
Sep 14, 2026Xiaotian ZhangComputational Cost Deadlines
Trooly.AI
Shorter Reasoning, Earlier Answers? An Evaluation of Reasoning Interfaces
Aug 4, 2026Francesca Carlon, Vincent Ginis, Andres AlgabaReasoning Traces Mmlu-Pro
Data Analytics Lab, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 5, 1050 Brussels, Belgium · imec-SMIT, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 9, 1050 Brussels, Belgium · School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
EchoChange: A Diffusion Language Model with Dual Pass Remasking for Factual Remote Sensing Disaster Change Captioning
Aug 3, 2026Dongwei Sun, Bowen Yao, Yujie Zhang +3Remote Sensing Image Difference Captioning
School of Computer Science and Technology and the Ministry of Education Key Lab for Intelligent Networks and Network Security, Xi’an Jiaotong University, 710049, China · School of Computer Science and Technology, Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China · State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China
Reliability-Contagion Feasibility in LLM Multi-Agent Networks
Jul 24, 2026Ruiwu Niu, Xincheng Shu, Ying ZhaoMulti-Agent Communication Large Language Model Reliability
Department of Applied Data Science, Hong Kong Shue Yan University, Hong Kong SAR, China · Computational Communication Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China · School of Journalism and Communication, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China +1
Early Adoption of Agentic Coding Tools by GitHub Projects
Jul 15, 2026Maliha Noushin Raida, Daqing HouPull Requests Coding Agents
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester, NY, USA
Doomed from the Start: Early Abort of LLM Agent Episodes via a Recall-Controlled Probe Cascade
Jul 7, 2026Kai Ruan, Zihe Huang, Ziqi Zhou +4Factual Recall Early Layers
Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China · Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences · Duke University +3
Echoes of Unrest: A Multimodal NLP Framework for Early Warning of Fake News and Violence-Driven Mob Activity
Jul 2, 2026Md. Maruf Bangabashi, Tahmid Hasan, Golam Mahmud +3Fake News Detection Fake News
Predicting Early Stages Of Alzheimer's Disease And Identifying Key Biomarkers Using Deep Artificial Neural Network And Ensemble Of Machine Learning Methodologies
Jul 2, 2026Debopriya GhoshAlzheimer Biomarker
How Early Is Early Enough? Design-Dependent Observation-Window Sufficiency in Subscription Churn Prediction
Jul 1, 2026Xiao Han, Yao Xiao, Chenyu Wu +1Churn Prediction Cohort
Goizueta Business School Emory University Atlanta, GA, USA · College of Computing Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA · Pratt School of Engineering Duke University Durham, NC, USA +1
Knowing in Advance When an Evolutionary Outer Loop Will Not Help: A Pre-Registered Cheap-Baseline Screening Rule
Jun 28, 2026Ramchand KumaresanScreening Early Stopping
Murai Labs
Prism Transformer: Progressive Head Schedules for Hierarchical Attention Processing
Jun 25, 2026Shubham AggarwalMulti-Head Attention Transformer Architectures
Phoneme-Level Mispronunciation Screening in Polish-Speaking Children with an Explainable Assistant
Jun 23, 2026Milosz Dudek, Daria Hemmerling, Kamil Kwarciak +9Pronunciation Assessment Screening
AGH University of Krakow, Cracow, Poland · SoftServe, Cracow, Poland · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, Poland +1
Predicting Poets' Origins from Verse: A Computational Analysis of Regional Linguistic Fingerprints in the Complete Tang Poems
Jun 23, 2026Chi-Sheng Chen, Hung-Yun LiuPoetry Linguistics
Harvard University · University of Washington
Do Video Foundation Models Understand Intuitive Physics? A Layerwise Probing Analysis
Jun 8, 2026Samuele Punzo, Niccolò Caselli, Ippokratis Pantelidis +3Video Foundation Models Foundation Model
University of Amsterdam, Netherlands.
DiG-Plan: Mitigating Early Commitment for Tool-Graph Planning via Diffusion Guidance
Jun 4, 2026Yansi Li, Zhuosheng ZhangClassical Planning Planning
School of Computer Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
When Evidence is Sparse: Weakly Supervised Early Failure Alerting in Dialogs and LLM-Agent Trajectories
Jun 3, 2026Avinash Baidya, Xinran Liang, Ruocheng Guo +2Early Failure Prediction Early Warning
1Intuit AI Research · 2Princeton University
Computational conceptual history of scientific concepts: From early digital methods to LLMs
Jun 2, 2026Michael Zichert, Arno SimonsHistory Distributional Information
EarlyTom: Early Token Compression Completes Fast Video Understanding
May 28, 2026Hesong Wang, Xin Jin, Lu Lu +4Token Compression Vision Encoders
Zhejiang University · Westlake University · Alibaba Cloud Computing
Better Later Than Sooner: Neuro-Symbolic Knowledge Graph Construction via Ontology-grounded Post-extraction Correction
May 27, 2026Lorenzo Loconte, Timothy Hospedales, Cristina CornelioKnowledge Graphs Graph-Based Retrieval Augmented Generation
University of Edinburgh, UK · Samsung AI Center, Cambridge, UK
When Can We Trust Early Warnings? Leakage-Excluded Early Outcome Prediction from LMS Interaction Logs
May 25, 2026Ngoc Luyen Le, Marie-Hélène Abel, Bertrand LaforgeEarly Warning Leakage
Gamaizer, 93340 Le Raincy, France · Université de technologie de Compiègne, CNRS, Heudiasyc (Heuristics and Diagnosis of Complex Systems), CS 60319 - 60203 Compiègne Cedex, France · Sorbonne Université, CNRS UMR 7585, LPMHE (Laboratoire de Physique Nucléaire et des Hautes Énergies), 75252 Paris cedex 05, France
Understanding and Mitigating Premature Confidence for Better LLM Reasoning
May 23, 2026Jingchu Gai, Guanning Zeng, Christina Baek +4LLM Reasoning Strategies Overconfidence
1Carnegie Mellon University · 2Tsinghua University
HawkesLLM: Semantic Uncertainty Propagation in Agentic Text Simulation
May 21, 2026Zewei Deng, Tinghan Ye, Liyan XieLarge Language Models(Llms Uncertainty
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Minnesota · H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
From Division to Decision: Leveraging Temporal Cell-Stage Segmentation for Embryo Transferability Prediction
May 18, 2026Yasmine Hachani, Patrick Bouthemy, Elisa Fromont +3Early Layers Transformer Architectures
MALT · Inria center at Rennes University, France · University of Rennes, IRISA France +4
Inline Critic Steers Image Editing
May 12, 2026Weitai Kang, Xiaohang Zhan, Yizhou Wang +4Image Editing Multi-Reference Image Generation
University of Illinois Chicago · Adobe
Early Data Exposure Improves Robustness to Subsequent Fine-Tuning
May 12, 2026Lawrence Feng, Gaurav R. Ghosal, Jacob Mitchell Springer +2Model Fine-Tuning Retention
Carnegie Mellon University
ORACLE: Anticipating Scams from Partial Trajectories in Streaming App Usage
May 9, 2026Wenbo Gao, Songbai Tan, Zhongan Wang +6Fraud Detection Threat Detection
Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen · Shenzhen University · Zhejiang University +4
Enhanced 3D Brain Tumor Segmentation Using Assorted Precision Training
May 5, 2026Adwaitt Pandya, Ozioma C. Oguine, Harita Bhargava +1Brain Tumor Segmentation Tumor
Department of Computer Science, Oriental Institute of Science and Technology, Bhopal, India · Department of Computer Science, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
Transformers with Selective Access to Early Representations
May 5, 2026Skye Gunasekaran, Téa Wright, Rui-Jie Zhu +1Transformer Architectures Early Layers
UC Santa Cruz · UC Berkeley
AIs and Humans with Agency
May 4, 2026David MumfordHuman Agency Artificial Intelligence Systems
Staged Factorial Screening for Budget-Constrained Micro-Pretraining
Apr 27, 2026Felipe Chavarro PolaniaEarly Layers Factor
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Zero-shot World Models Are Developmentally Efficient Learners
Apr 11, 2026Khai Loong Aw, Klemen Kotar, Wanhee Lee +6World Models Early Layers
Stanford University
Don't stop me now: How Validation Criteria Affect Checkpoint Selection and Early Stopping
Feb 25, 2026Andrea Apicella, Francesco Isgrò, Andrea Pollastro +1Early Stopping Model Checkpoints
Department of Information Engineering, Electrical Engineering, and Applied Mathematics (DIEM), University of Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II, 132, Fisciano (Salerno), 84084, Italy. · Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio 21, Naples, 80125, Italy.
Performance-Efficiency Tradeoffs in Transformers: An Approximation Theory Perspective
Oct 4, 2025Ruoxi Yu, Haotian Jiang, Jingpu Cheng +3Transformer Attention Transformer Architectures
Center for Data Science, Peking University · Institute for Functional Intelligent Materials, National University of Singapore · Department of Mathematics, National University of Singapore +1

Oct 5, 2026, cs.SIJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Forecasting the Growth of Social Media Information Cascades: Towards Human-in-the-Loop Misinformation Triage

Ansh Gupta, Abhiram Gorle, Aayush Rajesh, Tsachy Weissman

The Overlake School · Stanford University

Triage Early Warning Early Layers

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Limited review teams must identify which emerging claims are likely to keep growing before their eventual reach is known. We center early misinformation triage on this continuation-forecasting problem: predicting subsequent recorded propagation-tree growth from the first 30 minutes of activity. On FibVID, we compare early node count with structural depth entropy, temporal arrival entropy, and their pair while keeping all propagation trees from each original claim in one partition. Across 352 test trees from 59 claim groups separate from training, the combined model raises

R^2

for log-transformed future growth from 0.307 to 0.323 and reduces log-MAE by 2.4% (95% claim-bootstrap CI, -0.4% to 5.2%). The gain is especially pronounced among 97 high-activity trees:

R^2

rises from 0.248 to 0.395, Spearman's

ρ

from 0.394 to 0.529, and log-MAE falls by 11.7% (95% CI, -1.9% to 23.9%). Complementing the 30-minute growth forecast, we analyze the first 15 replies in 563 PHEME threads. In this cohort, the 15th reply arrives after a median of 28.8 minutes; 52.0% reach the fixed reply prefix within 30 minutes and 71.6% within one hour. Even without the LLM-generated factual-accuracy dimension, the remaining stance, communicative, and affective state composition retains cross-event ranking signal (ROC-AUC 0.538); including that dimension increases ROC-AUC to 0.562. In a separate Check-COVID evaluation of 229 claims, reciprocal-rank fusion retrieves a gold evidence document within the top five for 74.2% of claims and within the top 20 for 94.3%; sentence reranking reaches Recall@20 of 58.1%. We propose an integrated human-review system that brings these early forecasts, response patterns, and retrieved evidence together for misinformation triage relying on the potential virality of claims.

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Latest papers 41