Plasma disruption is a critical threat to tokamak safety. Existing data-driven predictors mainly rely on time-series diagnostic signals, while visible images provide complementary spatial cues including plasma deformation, local brightening, and radiation-structure evolution. Although the image modality improves the model's discriminative capability, it also substantially increases the computational cost during inference. To address this issue, we propose a hierarchical multi-to-single-modal knowledge distillation framework for disruption prediction on a synchronized EAST multimodal dataset. During training, visible images and time-series signals are used to train a multimodal teacher, which learns disruption precursor representations through Transformer-based encoders and a prototype-guided spatiotemporal hypergraph module. During inference, only the time-series student is retained, with multimodal knowledge transferred through graph-structure-level, representation-level, and decision-level distillation. On the 640-discharge EAST dataset, the results demonstrate that the proposed framework can preserve the discriminative advantages of multimodal learning while substantially reducing inference cost, and providing an effective route for efficient disruption prediction in EAST. The source code of this paper will be released on https://github.com/Event-AHU/OpenFusion.
Reliable disruption prediction is essential for the safe operation of future tokamaks. Existing full-distribution survival methods model the complete residual time-to-disruption distribution, whereas operational decisions primarily depend on disruption risk within a finite prediction horizon. This mismatch motivates introducing Early Event Prediction (EEP) objectives into survival-based disruption prediction. We take Deep Survival Machines (DSM) as the full-distribution baseline and propose applying two established EEP methods to tokamak disruption prediction: Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), which directly predicts disruption probability within a finite horizon, and survTLS, which additionally models the event-time distribution within that horizon. Using a common causal encoder, we compare these methods on DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and EAST. We distinguish threshold-free deadline ranking from validation-selected fixed-policy alarm performance and evaluate prediction horizons and encoder architectures. TLS achieves the best mean alarm performance on DIII-D and EAST, whereas all methods perform poorly on Alcator C-Mod. survTLS does not consistently outperform DSM, suggesting that directly learning horizon-level event probability is more effective than modeling detailed within-horizon event-time distributions in the present setting. Finally, the selected prediction horizons and encoder-ablation results vary across devices, reflecting differences in disruption characteristics.
Plasma diagnostic models for tokamak fusion devices are almost universally evaluated on clean, complete sensor data. In practice, fusion diagnostics fail regularly: acquisition systems start late, individual sensors die, and signal dropouts cluster precisely when a plasma disruption is approaching. We present the first systematic robustness benchmark for plasma diagnostic ML using the TokaMark dataset of 11,573 MAST shots, evaluating XGBoost, LSTM, Transformer, and the TokaMark CNN baseline across six physically-grounded failure scenarios and three imputation strategies. We introduce the Robustness Score (RS) for standardized cross-architecture comparison. Our central finding is that disruption-proximate sensor failure (corruption injected in the final window timesteps) collapses sequence model performance (LSTM +212% NRMSE) while a statistical feature model remains comparatively stable (XGBoost +37%). Forward-fill imputation eliminates nearly all degradation from random dropout for sequence models (LSTM +57% to ~0%), but offers little help when the end of the window is corrupted. Shot-level alarm evaluation using ground-truth disruption timestamps reveals that LSTM alarm detection collapses to TPR=0.00 under proximate sensor failure, while mean-fill imputation recovers it to TPR=1.00, a reversal of the pattern observed in NRMSE. Plasma current emerges as the single most critical diagnostic across all architectures (+73% to +140% upon removal). Code, data, and trained checkpoints are available at https://github.com/Neerav-Gupta/tokamark-robustness.
Nuclear fusion has made significant progress in recent years and is expected to become one of the most important pathways to addressing global energy challenges. This paper focuses on observing plasma using visible-light cameras, analyzing its spatio-temporal motion cues, and predicting the two-dimensional spatial distribution of light intensity, aiming to provide a foundational basis for future scientific experiments using deep neural networks. Specifically, we propose Delta-InvFormer, a novel backbone network centered on a differential Transformer. The key insight is that by taking consecutive video frames as input, we can better capture the dynamics of the plasma. Moreover, spatial and temporal differential self-attention effectively mitigates interference from noisy signals, ensuring high-quality feature extraction. These features are then fused into a compact and informative representation, which is fed into a decoder network to predict the distribution. Based on real experimental data collected from the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) large-scale scientific facility, our results demonstrate that the proposed model not only significantly accelerates traditional methods for distribution prediction but also achieves competitive reconstruction accuracy. The source code of this paper will be released on https://github.com/Event-AHU/OpenFusion