Fixed-Confidence Best-Arm Identification for Causal Mediation Analysis

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

In fixed-budget best-arm identification, also known as ranking and selection, an algorithm has a sampling budget to distribute across $K$ arms. Each sample provides noisy feedback about that arm's mean, and the goal is to identify the arm with the largest mean. A common performance benchmark is the static oracle: a non-adaptive strategy that knows the means in advance and chooses fixed sampling proportions to maximize the exponential decay rate of the probability of incorrect identification. Several adaptive algorithms have been constructed such that their sampling proportions converge to the static oracle proportions. However, it has remained open whether any algorithm could match the static oracle's error decay rate uniformly across all problem instances. We answer this in the negative. For any $K\ge 3$ and for rewards drawn from any one-parameter natural exponential family, we show that for any algorithm, there is at least one instance where the error decay rate is at most $\left(1 + \frac{\log(K)}{8}\right)^{-1}$ times that of the static oracle. This also answers the open question posed by Qin (2022), showing that fixed-budget best-arm identification does not admit a complexity.

Causal knowledge can be used to support decision-making problems. This has been recognized in the causal bandits literature, where a causal (multi-armed) bandit is characterized by a causal graphical model and a target variable. The arms are then interventions on the causal model, and rewards are samples of the target variable. Causal bandits were originally studied with a focus on hard interventions. We focus instead on cases where the arms are conditional interventions, which more accurately model many real-world decision-making problems by allowing the value of the intervened variable to be chosen based on the observed values of other variables. This paper presents a graphical characterization of the minimal set of nodes guaranteed to contain the optimal conditional intervention, which maximizes the expected reward. We then propose an efficient algorithm with a time complexity of $O(|V| + |E|)$ to identify this minimal set of nodes. We prove that the graphical characterization and the proposed algorithm are correct. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that our algorithm significantly prunes the search space and substantially accelerates convergence rates when integrated into standard multi-armed bandit algorithms.