Counterfactual Methods for Detecting Unfairness in Anti-Money Laundering Algorithms

Machine learning algorithms in socially sensitive domains (e.g., credit decisions) often focus on equalizing predictive outcomes. However, satisfying these metrics does not guarantee that models use the same reasoning for different groups. We show that existing outcome-fair models can still apply fundamentally different reasoning to individuals, a hidden procedural bias'' missed by standard fairness metrics and algorithms. We propose Counterfactual Explanation Consistency (CEC), a framework that detects and mitigates this bias by aligning feature attributions between individuals and their counterfactual counterparts. Key contributions include a nearest-neighbor counterfactual generation method, a modified baseline for integrated gradient comparisons, an individual-level procedural fairness metric, and a corresponding training loss. We introduce a taxonomy identifying Regime B'' (same outcome, different reasoning) as a critical blind spot. Experiments on synthetic data, German Credit, Adult Income, and HMDA mortgage data demonstrate that outcome-fair baselines exhibit substantial hidden bias, while CEC substantially reduces it with modest utility cost.

Fair machine learning (ML) methods help identify and mitigate the risk that algorithms encode or automate social injustices. Algorithmic approaches alone cannot resolve structural inequalities, but they can support socio-technical decision systems by surfacing discriminatory biases, clarifying trade-offs, and enabling governance. Although fairness is well studied in supervised learning, many real ML applications are online and sequential, with prior decisions informing future ones. Each decision is taken under uncertainty due to unobserved counterfactuals and finite samples, with dire consequences for under-represented groups, systematically under-observed due to historical exclusion and selective feedback. A bank cannot know whether a denied loan would have been repaid, and may have less data on marginalized populations. This paper introduces a taxonomy of uncertainty in sequential decision-making -- model, feedback, and prediction uncertainty -- providing shared vocabulary for assessing systems where uncertainty is unevenly distributed across groups. We formalize model and feedback uncertainty via counterfactual logic and reinforcement learning, and illustrate harms to decision makers (unrealized gains/losses) and subjects (compounding exclusion, reduced access) of policies that ignore the unobserved space. Algorithmic examples show it is possible to reduce outcome variance for disadvantaged groups while preserving institutional objectives (e.g. expected utility). Experiments on data simulated with varying bias show how unequal uncertainty and selective feedback produce disparities, and how uncertainty-aware exploration alters fairness metrics. The framework equips practitioners to diagnose, audit, and govern fairness risks. Where uncertainty drives unfairness rather than incidental noise, accounting for it is essential to fair and effective decision-making.

The growing reliance of machine learning models in high-stakes, highly regulated domains such as finance and insurance has created a growing tension between predictive performance, interpretability, and regulatory fairness requirements. In these settings, models are expected not only to deliver reliable predictions but also to provide transparent decision rationales and comply with strict fairness requirements. Attention-based transformers offer powerful mechanisms for modeling complex data relationships as demonstrated in various language tasks, yet their attention mechanisms alone do not ensure counterfactually fair predictions, even when combined with fairness-aware techniques. To address these limitations, we propose the Feature Correlation Transformer (FCorrTransformer), an attention-light architecture tailored for tabular data. In this design, the attention matrix admits a direct statistical interpretation as pairwise feature dependencies, enhancing both interpretability and efficiency. Leveraging this structure, we introduce Counterfactual Attention Regularization (CAR), a framework that enforces group-invariant fair representations of sensitive features at the attention level, promoting counterfactually fair predictions without relying on explicit causal assumptions. Empirical evaluations on imbalanced classification and regression benchmarks demonstrate that FCorrTransformer combined with CAR achieves strong counterfactual fairness while maintaining competitive predictive performance and substantially reducing model complexity compared with standard transformer-based baselines. Overall, this work bridges a critical gap between fairness theory and machine learning models, offering a practical framework for responsible AI in regulatory-sensitive domains.