MPFlow: Learning Budgeted Max-Flow Optimization on the Lightning Network with Deep Graph Reinforcement Learning

The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which locks the involved capital for an extended period and degrades network reliability. In this paper, we study the problem of predicting channel closure types from publicly available gossip data, framing it as a temporal link classification task over the evolving channel graph. We construct a dataset spanning over two years of LN activity and benchmark a range of machine learning approaches, from MLPs to temporal graph neural networks and spectral encodings. Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches, and discuss how the inherent privacy of the LN, where critical information such as channel balances and payment flows remains hidden, fundamentally limits the predictability of closures from gossip data alone. We publicly release the dataset and code at https://github.com/AmbossTech/ln-channel-closure-prediction to encourage further research on this practically relevant task.

Modern network policy control maps intent to sequential placement-control decisions. Bellman-style policy optimization primarily asks which action to optimize, while constraints are commonly handled through penalty, barrier, or Lagrangian mechanisms. We observe that before a value function can certify the best deployment, intermediate signals may already identify many candidates that should be excluded from further optimization. This motivates a complementary direction: \emph{Learning Not to Optimize}. Before a value function is accurate enough to select the best placement-control decision, intermediate signals may already show that candidates are equivalent under state--intent relabeling (quotienting), lead to a uniformly worse future state (dominance), or violate executable network laws (residual screening). \LNOQRD{} uses these computed or learned signals as a shadow process to reshape the domain on which primal policy optimization is performed, thereby reducing the action space. We prove lossless quotienting and dominance under explicit equivariance and monotonicity conditions, bound frontier size and ranking cost, and quantify losses from approximate certificates and primal estimates. Experiments show that \LNOQRD{} reduces small-instance candidates by $75.9\%$ while retaining $90.8\%$ near-oracle coverage and, on large instances, achieves the highest utility and intent satisfaction, the lowest hard-law violation and post-generation latency, and a $73.0\%$ average reduction among candidate-based baselines.

We study an integrated pickup-and-delivery problem on sparse, non-Euclidean networks that jointly optimizes cyclic routing, cargo flow allocation, and cross-cycle service. The tight coupling of these operational constraints creates a complex discrete-continuous decision space with highly restricted feasible regions. To overcome these computational challenges, we propose Double-Channel Graph Attention (DCGA), an end-to-end reinforcement learning framework. DCGA isolates network reachability and demand-service logic into separate graph channels and constructs valid routes using a simulator-coupled, constraint-informed decoder. Experiments on LinerLib benchmarks demonstrate that DCGA achieves seconds-level inference and delivers state-of-the-art solution quality on instances beyond a specific scale, with its advantage over existing baselines widening significantly as problem size increases. Supported by extensive stability and ablation analyses, our results demonstrate that this structure-aware learning approach provides an effective, low-latency engine for realistic routing-and-flow optimization.