Reliability Scaling Laws for Quantized Large Language Models
Authors: Sirine Ayadi, Sándor Daróczi, Stephan Günnemann, Bertrand Charpentier
Organizations: School of Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich Munich Data Science Institute · Pruna AI
Abstract
Quantization is a powerful strategy to build capable and resource-efficient large language models (LLMs) by reducing the bitwidth of the parameters. While quantized LLMs achieve state-of-the-art performance on unperturbed inputs using standard predictive metrics, their performance on perturbed inputs, measured using reliability metrics, remains underexplored, despite its importance for reliable deployment. To address this gap, we first conduct a comprehensive reliability evaluation of quantized LLMs consisting of three key components: (1) Uncertainty: We assess the trustworthiness of LLMs quantized to 2, 3, 4, and 8 bits using six different quantization methods, employing established uncertainty metrics. (2) Calibration: We assess how well-calibrated the uncertainty estimates of quantized models are across model scales and bit precisions. (3) Robustness: We design character-level and word-level input perturbations to evaluate the reliability of quantized models under semantically-preserving variations in the inputs that arise in real-world applications. Second, we characterize how reliability scales with the total number of model bits. Our study reveals that while the performance scales monotonically with the total number of bits, the reliability scalings are nonlinear. A reliability peak occurs for 4-bit quantized models, indicating that quantizing moderately sized models offers the best reliability-efficiency trade-off. Additionally, our empirical findings reveal that quantization enhances the robustness of LLMs to natural input perturbations.
Post-training quantization is widely used to deploy large language models in resource-constrained settings, yet its evaluation relies almost exclusively on accuracy and perplexity. We show that these metrics fail to capture behavioral changes induced by quantization. We introduce correctness agreement, a decision-level metric that measures overlap in correct predictions between a base model and its quantized variants, independent of absolute accuracy. Across multiple models and quantization schemes from 8-bit to 2-bit, we find that behavioral divergence emerges under moderate quantization even when task performance appears preserved. To explain this effect, we analyze quantization as a structural operator on attention weights and quantify layer-wise distortions using statistical and distributional measures. Our results reveal non-linear breakpoints at low bit-widths and show that query and key projections are consistently more sensitive than value and output projections. These findings expose an illusion of equivalence between base and quantized models and motivate behavioral evaluation beyond conventional performance metrics.
Baha Rababah, Cuneyt Gurcan Akcora, Carson K. Leung
Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown their remarkable capacities in many NLP tasks. However, their substantial size often presents challenges for deployment. This necessitates efficient techniques for model compression, with quantization emerging as a prominent solution. Despite its benefits, the exact impact of quantization (from 2- to 6-bit) on the performance and accuracy of LLMs remains an active area of research. This paper investigates the performance of eight LLMs at various quantization levels, focusing on tasks such as MMLU-Pro for knowledge processing and reasoning, CRUXEval for code comprehension, and MuSR for reading comprehension. Our results show a consistent trend where higher precision (e.g., 8-bit Q8_0) yields improved performance, albeit with diminishing returns. Aggressive quantization (e.g., 2-bit Q2_K) usually retains acceptable accuracy, though some models show a substantial loss in performance. Our findings indicate that while lower bit precision generally reduces performance, the impact varies across models and tasks. Larger models show greater resilience to aggressive quantization, but can still undergo significant drops at lower precision levels. Mid-sized models in the 7-9 billion parameter range strike an optimal balance between efficiency and resource usage. Such results provide insights into the trade-offs between model size, quantization, and performance.
Post-training quantization reduces the deployment cost of large language models, yet how severely a quantized model degrades is not determined by bit-width alone. We systematically study weight-only post-training quantization across bit-widths, quantization methods, model scales and downstream tasks on multiple model families. We observe that such degradation varies substantially across these factors: 4-bit quantization usually preserves performance, 2-bit often causes broad degradation, and at 3-bit, degradation becomes apparent but varies markedly with task type, quantization method and model scale. To explain this variability, we use the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to measure how strongly quantization perturbs full-precision representations. We trace degradation back to two linked processes: how quantization errors arise within individual modules, and how they accumulate across layers. First, a source SNR decomposition shows that newly introduced errors depend on three factors: the magnitude of the weight error, the strength of the task-specific signal, and how strongly the quantization error aligns with task-specific activations. Different factors affect these components in distinct ways. Second, a cross-layer propagation analysis shows that these errors can be attenuated, preserved, or amplified as they pass across layers, and that larger models benefit from weaker error amplification. Together, these results establish that quantization degradation is governed by how errors are introduced at the source and how they accumulate across the network.