Reinforcement Learning (RL) post-training is increasingly used to adapt foundation models for reasoning, planning, and feedback-driven robot-learning pipelines, but constrained post-training resources are often summarized by a single total FLOP budget. We study the fixed-budget decision problem behind this practice: under the same post-training budget, should one use a larger policy, train a smaller policy longer, generate more rollout search, or spend compute on stronger reward feedback? We introduce a FLOP-accounting framework for GRPO post-training that decomposes compute into rollout/search, policy-update/learning, and reward- or feedback-model evaluation. Across LoRA-adapted Qwen2.5 policies, we find conditional allocation frontiers: the best observed allocation changes with model size, compute budget, reward system, and evaluation target. Same-FLOP model-size comparisons show that model choice and training allocation are coupled because larger policies consume more per-token compute and therefore buy fewer updates or rollouts under the same budget. Reward systems also change the accounting: rule-based rewards spend nearly all non-update compute on policy rollouts, while PRM-style feedback allocates a visible part of the budget to reward-model inference. We present RACE as a diagnostic pilot-grid protocol, not a guarantee of held-out improvement, for identifying allocation regimes before expensive validation runs; our results suggest that RL post-training papers should report total FLOPs together with how compute is divided among model size, search, learning, and feedback.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is the dominant paradigm for post-training large language models. However, in the online, on-policy setting, rollout generation dominates the computational cost of training. Group-based policy optimization methods compute advantages from multiple rollouts per prompt, yet they indiscriminately allocate budget to prompts with collapsed reward distributions, wasting expensive rollouts on negligible learning signals. We demonstrate that group-based updates are most effective in regimes of high reward variance. Since the policy evolves throughout training, prompt informativeness must be estimated online rather than precomputed, but exhaustively evaluating every prompt is computationally prohibitive. We introduce Pilot-Commit, a budget-aware rollout allocation framework for group-based RL post-training. Pilot-Commit decouples prompt evaluation from exploitation: a pilot stage estimates per-prompt informativeness using a fraction of the budget, and the remaining rollouts are allocated to high-leverage prompts while low-signal prompts are skipped. Across multiple math reasoning benchmarks and model scales from 1.5B to 14B parameters, Pilot-Commit matches baseline accuracy with significantly lower sampling costs, reaching target accuracy up to 1.9× faster than GRPO and 4.0× faster than DAPO in cumulative rollouts.
LLM post-training often relies on reinforcement learning methods that sample multiple rollouts per prompt, yet most existing approaches use a fixed rollout budget for every prompt, despite large differences in the training signal different prompts provide. In this paper, we study adaptive rollout allocation under a fixed global budget and formulate the problem as online resource allocation with prompt-level diminishing returns. Our method, CERO, maintains a Beta posterior over each prompt's success probability and uses the posterior expected Bernoulli variance as a Bayesian estimate of the value of additional rollouts. We use this estimate to construct a concave, saturating utility over cumulative allocations, yielding an objective in which decisions across prompts and epochs are coupled by the global budget. Since the resulting objective is temporally nonseparable, we derive a Fenchel-dual reformulation and update both prompt-level and budget-level dual variables via projected online gradient descent. Under fixed prompt utilities, we prove an O(K) regret bound against the offline allocation benchmark. Experiments on mathematical-reasoning problems show that CERO consistently outperforms GRPO across multiple open-weight LLMs and benchmarks, demonstrating that adaptive rollout budgeting can improve sample efficiency.
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a central paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models. Group-based policy optimization methods, such as GRPO, typically allocate a fixed number of rollouts to every prompt. This uniform allocation can be inefficient: it over-allocates compute to prompts whose sampled groups are already saturated while under-exploring prompts for which additional samples may reveal useful correct trajectories. To address this limitation, we introduce hit utility, the posterior probability that at least one rollout in a proposed additional allocation for a prompt will be correct. Building on this notion, we propose Hit-Utility Optimal Rollout Allocation (HORA), a learning-free rollout allocation policy that maximizes total posterior hit utility within each allocation batch. HORA adaptively reallocates rollout budgets while leaving the downstream reward evaluation and group-based advantage estimator unchanged. Across four mathematical reasoning benchmarks and three model scales, HORA preserves comparable Pass@1 and improves Pass@K over compute-matched GRPO in ten of twelve model--benchmark configurations, with one tie and one saturated exception. It is also drop-in compatible with other group-based estimators such as RLOO. Ablation studies indicate that the uniform prior used by HORA is competitive with five prompt-conditioned learned-prior alternatives.