The Cost and Network Limits of Space-Based AI Compute

Large language models (LLMs) impose rapidly growing energy demands, creating an emerging energy and carbon crisis driven by large-scale inference. Solar-powered, AI-enabled low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites have been proposed to mitigate terrestrial electricity consumption, but their lifecycle carbon footprint remains poorly understood due to launch emissions, satellite manufacturing, and radiation-hardened hardware requirements. This paper presents \textit{LLMSpace}, the first carbon modeling framework for LLM inference on AI-enabled LEO satellites. LLMSpace jointly models operational and embodied carbon, peripheral subsystems, radiation-hardened accelerators and memories, and LLM-specific workload characteristics such as prefill-decode behavior and token generation. Using realistic satellite and GPU configurations, LLMSpace reveals key trade-offs among carbon footprint, inference latency, hardware design, and operational lifetime for sustainable space-based LLM inference. Source code: https://github.com/UnchartedRLab/LLMSpace.

Leveraging continuous solar energy harvesting at high efficiency, space data centers are envisioned as a promising platform for executing energy-intensive large language models (LLMs). Recognizing this advantage, space and AI conglomerates (e.g., SpaceX, Google) are actively investing in this vision. One key challenge, however, is the efficient distributed deployment of a large-scale LLM in a satellite network due to the limited onboard computing and communication resources. This gives rise to a placement problem that involves partitioning and mapping model components to satellites such that the fundamentally different model architecture and network topology can be reconciled to ensure low-latency token generation. To address this problem, we present the Space Network of Mixture-of-Experts (SpaceMoE) framework targeting the distributed execution of a popular mixture-of-experts (MoE) model in space. The proposed placement strategies are two-level: (1) layer placement, which assigns MoE layers to satellite subnets; and (2) intra-layer expert placement, which assigns individual experts to satellites associated with the same layer/subnet. For layer placement, we exploit the ring-like communication pattern of autoregressive inference to partition the satellite constellation along the orbiting direction into subnets arranged on a ring, each hosting one MoE layer. Based on this architecture, we formulate and solve an optimization problem for intra-layer expert placement to map experts with heterogeneous activation probabilities onto satellites. The derived strategy reveals an intuitive principle: a frequently activated expert should be mapped to a satellite on a routing path with low expected latency. Experiments over a thousand-satellite constellation show that SpaceMoE achieves at least a threefold latency reduction compared with conventional random and ablation-based placement strategies.

Dramatic cost reductions driven by private sector innovations have led to a rapid increase in the number of satellites in orbit and a corresponding surge in space-generated data. As this trend continues, transmitting large volumes of data to Earth for processing may become increasingly costly and challenging due to potential space-to-Earth link congestion and increased latency. Moreover, traditional ground station networks may face difficulties accommodating growing data flows and workloads because of capacity constraints, complex scheduling logistics, and restricted visibility windows, which can limit scalability. Space Data Centers (SDCs) -- software-driven, multi-tenant artificial intelligence-based service platforms capable of processing data in orbit to generate actionable insights for client satellites and ground users -- represent a promising approach to address these challenges. This article presents the architecture of a Low Earth Orbit SDC satellite constellation, considering orbital design, inter-satellite links and network topology, computational resource organization, and software service orchestration. We analyze the potential technical feasibility and economic viability of SDCs using forecasting models informed by technology roadmaps and illustrate the concept through Earth observation and lunar exploration use cases.