Lossless but Not Free: An Empirical Anatomy of Speculative Decoding on Consumer Hardware

Linear-attention models replace the growing KV cache with recurrent states, but autoregressive decoding still reads, updates, and writes these states one token at a time. Speculative decoding can reduce this cost by verifying several draft tokens in one target pass, yet existing speculative systems are designed for Transformer KV caches. For stateful linear-attention targets, verification must follow recurrent dependencies across chains and branches, acceptance must update only the accepted state trajectory, and the drafter must avoid submitting candidates that waste stateful verification work. This paper presents SpecLA, a speculative decoding runtime for stateful linear-attention models. SpecLA verifies chains and trees with topology-aware kernels, stores compact factors produced during verification to recover accepted states, and uses confidence pruning plus a target-aligned EAGLE-style drafter to feed useful candidates to the verifier. On an NVIDIA H100 with a public GDN-1.3B target, SpecLA achieves up to 1.70x end-to-end speedup over autoregressive decoding.

Large Language Model (LLM) generation remains expensive because autoregressive decoding calls the model once for each new token. Speculative decoding reduces this cost by drafting multiple tokens and verifying them with the target model in one step, but its speedup depends on how many drafted tokens are accepted. Parameter-free draft sources can propose long continuations at low cost in structured and agentic workloads, yet a cache match that looks promising at one generation step may have low payoff at the next. We propose Hybrid Verified Decoding, which predicts the accepted length of a cache draft before verification and uses this payoff estimate to choose between cache verification and a model-based drafter. Across three LLMs and sixteen datasets, Hybrid Verified Decoding is especially effective on agentic workflows, where it outperforms EAGLE3 in every setting with a 2.73x average speedup. Our analysis shows how prompt structure creates cache opportunities, how high-payoff cache drafts concentrate in a small part of the draft space, and how payoff-guided selection reduces sequential decoding work, pointing to runtime draft selection as a promising direction for speculative decoding.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model inference by drafting multiple tokens for parallel verification, with efficiency critically determined by the speculative length selected at each decoding round. Existing dynamic speculation methods select the speculation length by estimating how many tokens will be accepted, which is reasonable for autoregressive drafters that generates tokens sequentially. The recent wave of diffusion-based drafters, however, generates candidate blocks in parallel at substantially lower drafting cost, shifting the key question from how many tokens to generate to how many generated tokens are worth verifying. We therefore reformulate dynamic speculative-length selection as expected-speedup optimization and derive a marginal criterion that extends the speculative sequence only when its acceptance gain outweighs the additional verification cost. Building on this criterion, we develop \textit{LibraSpec}, a training-free and plug-and-play algorithm that iteratively determines the speculative length using drafter confidence scores. Theoretically, we prove that LibraSpec monotonically converges toward the optimal speculative length. Experiments across six target models, three diffusion-based speculative decoding methods, and math, coding, and chat benchmarks show consistent improvements under both greedy and sampling settings, achieving a further $0.5\sim1.5\times$ improvement over baselines and up to $8.49\times$ speedup over autoregressive decoding.