Calibrated Selective Fact-Checking via Evidence Chain Evaluation
Organizations: Zhejiang University
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) can achieve strong fact-checking accuracy, yet forced binary decisions conceal a critical reliability problem: systems may issue confident verdicts even when supporting evidence is weak, sparse, or internally inconsistent. We address this issue through Evidence Chain Evaluation (ECE), a selective fact-checking framework that permits abstention via an uncertain verdict instead of requiring a true/false decision for every claim. The evaluated system is a tool-using verification agent that gathers evidence through web search, scholarly search, and executable checks, and then returns a structured verdict with confidence and source-level metadata. On ECE-Bench, ECE achieves 91.6% standard accuracy, 93.7% coverage, and 97.8% selective accuracy on answered claims. Although ECE does not outperform the strongest retrieval baseline on aggregate calibration metrics such as Expected Calibration Error, Brier score, or AURC, it delivers a clear selective-prediction trade-off: the system maintains very high accuracy on answered claims while deferring 6 of 95 cases. These deferred cases are concentrated in lower-reliability evidence settings (5/6 at source level L4), supporting the view that abstention functions as a safety-oriented mechanism for handling epistemically weak evidence. Code is available at https://github.com/ cheshireyang/ECE.git
Figures & tables
| Method | Acc. | Sel. Acc. | Cov. | Macro F1 | ECE | Brier | AURC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanilla | 96.8% | 96.8% | 100.0% | 0.968 | 0.0216 | 0.0310 | 0.0048 |
| CoT | 96.8% | 96.8% | 100.0% | 0.968 | 0.0149 | 0.0323 | 0.0096 |
| Search | 97.9% | 97.9% | 100.0% | 0.978 | 0.0096 | 0.0213 | 0.0082 |
| ECE | 91.6% | 97.8% | 93.7% | 0.944 | 0.0508 | 0.0385 | 0.0182 |
Appendix figures & tables3 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Automated Fact-Checking
Automated fact-checking detects checkable claims, retrieves evidence, and assesses whether that evidence supports or refutes them.
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