Toward Auditable Fraud Detection: Combining Graph Features, Model Explanations, and Agentic Case Investigation

Money mule accounts are critical facilitators of financial fraud, yet detecting them at scale remains challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of transactional and behavioural data. We present an end-to-end pipeline for customer-level mule detection comprising three stages: (1) a LightGBM classifier trained on 280 engineered features spanning transaction patterns, account demographics, network topology, and temporal behaviour; (2) a TreeSHAP attribution layer that decomposes each prediction into feature contributions; and (3) a large language model (LLM) module that converts SHAP attributions into analyst-facing natural-language narratives. We evaluate across three open-weight LLM families and assess explanation quality through analyst feedback. In a live production deployment, the system achieves a yield rate of 89%, up from 61% under the incumbent rule-based system, with monthly alert volume expanding from 211 to 302, reflecting broader true-positive coverage rather than increased noise. This corresponds to a 60% incremental adverse detection beyond existing review workflows, substantially outperforming the rule-based approach. Qualitative feedback from analysts indicates that LLM-generated narratives reduce cognitive load during alert triage. We further discuss implications of deploying LLM-augmented explainability in regulated financial environments.

Fraud detection in payment, e-commerce, and telecommunications systems requires accuracy at the individual level, robustness under severe class imbalance, and ease of understanding for risk managers. Existing methods fall at least one of these requirements: automated machine learning systems search a fixed numerical space without semantic awareness of the dataset; graph neural network-based methods require pre-defined relational graphs and remain opaque at the individual-decision level; and the design of general-purpose large language model (LLM) agents does not consider the recall and precision constraints specific to real-world fraud detection. In this paper, we propose SAGE, the first end-to-end LLM-driven multi-agent framework for fraud detection. SAGE coordinates three dedicated agents that make decisions based on a six-layer Data Diagnostic Tree (DDT) and a Markov decision process guided by natural-language gradients, automatically optimizing the model under a fraud-specific reward. On five fraud datasets and five LLM backbones, SAGE wins $96.00\%$ of method--dataset comparisons and improves F1 by an average of $40.86\%$ over baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/yichenC1c/SAGE.

The U.S. financial system processes approximately 1.3 million interbank transactions daily, yet no system in the reviewed literature models fraud propagation across the interbank network using fraud co-occurrence edge features. Prior interbank GNN architectures model credit contagion using credit distress supervision signals, producing systems misaligned for fraud forensics. No existing system generates SAR narratives with per-assertion forensic traceability to specific numerical detection outputs, creating regulatory auditability gaps in FinCEN-submitted reports. This paper introduces SCAFDS (Systemic Contagion-Aware Fraud Detection System), a seven-stage integrated surveillance pipeline addressing five structural limitations of prior art: (1) fraud-specific interbank topology encoding using fraud co-occurrence frequency metrics f(u,v,t) derived from FinCEN SAR registry records; (2) edge-feature-informed graph attention where coefficients are computed from both node representations and fraud co-occurrence edge features; (3) bilinear fraud co-occurrence risk fusion producing institution-level systemic fraud risk scores; (4) attribution-conditioned SAR narrative generation with per-assertion significance thresholds ensuring each FinCEN SAR assertion is traceable to a specific numerical pipeline output; and (5) topology-aware adaptive forensic feedback updating graph attention weights from regulatory dispositions. Experiments on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection Dataset (590,540 transactions) and a synthetic FDIC-aligned interbank network (8,103 institutions, 169,800 edges) show SCAFDS achieves AUPRC=0.515+/-0.032 and AUROC=0.802+/-0.018, representing +15.9pp and +13.7pp improvements over GraphSAGE-AML. Partial validation on FDIC enforcement action records (n=4,279) confirms consistent model ranking. USPTO Provisional Patent Application No. 64/061,083, filed May 8, 2026.