Strong Gravitational Lensing Posterior Sampling in Pixel-Space Using Diffusion Models and Recurrent Inference Machines

Reconstructing the three-dimensional distribution of dark matter from weak-lensing observations is a central but highly ill-posed inverse problem in cosmology. Unlike standard 3D reconstruction with multiple viewpoints, we observe the universe from a single line of sight, through noisy shape distortions of galaxies with uncertain distances, so meaningful recovery of the 3D matter field requires strong prior assumptions. Existing methods either produce point estimates with handcrafted priors or use neural ensembles for approximate Bayesian uncertainty, and struggle to capture the non-Gaussian, filamentary structure of the cosmic web. With the advent of new high-resolution cosmological simulations, we now have an alternative source of prior knowledge that captures the nonlinear statistics of structure formation with far greater fidelity than analytic prescriptions. We leverage these simulations to build a new dataset $\texttt{Conicus3D}$, which enables us to learn a data-driven diffusion-model prior capturing the full 3D distribution of dark matter structure across cosmic time. Building on recent plug-and-play approaches, we modify a diffusion-based posterior sampling scheme to the 3D weak-lensing setting, combining the learned prior with a differentiable physical forward model. On realistic simulations targeting a modern weak lensing survey, our approach yields substantially improved 2D and 3D reconstruction accuracy over baseline methods. Moreover, it produces posterior samples whose statistics closely track the underlying simulations, while remaining robust to moderate shifts in cosmology.

Understanding galaxy morphology evolution across cosmic time requires models that can generate realistic galaxy populations conditioned on redshift. In this work, we study efficient redshift-conditioned generative modeling for astrophysical image synthesis using diffusion models and pixel-MeanFlow. We first review the connections between score-based diffusion models, Flow Matching, one-step generative models, and modern diffusion samplers. We then evaluate DDPM, DDIM, DEIS-AB2, DPM++2M, and one-step pixel-MeanFlow on the GalaxiesML-64 dataset using morphology-based metrics, including ellipticity, semi-major axis, Sérsic index, and isophotal area. Our results show a clear accuracy-efficiency trade-off: standard DDPM sampling achieves the best distributional fidelity but requires high computational cost, while second-order samplers substantially improve efficiency over DDIM. Pixel-MeanFlow enables single-step generation and achieves competitive performance on several morphology statistics, though it remains weaker than many-step DDPM for fine-grained structure. Our results demonstrate that one-step generative models can recover key galaxy morphology statistics at orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost, opening a path toward efficient conditional simulators for large cosmological surveys and simulation-based scientific inference.

Upcoming stage-IV surveys such as Euclid and Rubin will deliver vast amounts of high-precision data, opening new opportunities to constrain cosmological models with unprecedented accuracy. A key step in this process is the reconstruction of the dark matter distribution from noisy weak-lensing shear measurements. Current deep-learning-based mass-mapping methods achieve high reconstruction accuracy, but either require retraining a model for each new observed sky region (limiting practicality) or rely on slow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Efficient exploitation of future survey data therefore calls for a new method that is accurate, flexible, and fast at inference. In addition, an uncertainty quantification with coverage guarantees is essential for a reliable cosmological parameter estimation. We introduce PnPMass, a plug-and-play approach for weak-lensing mass mapping. The algorithm produces point estimates by alternating between a gradient descent step with a carefully chosen data fidelity term and a denoising step implemented with a single deep-learning model trained on simulated data corrupted by Gaussian white noise. We also propose a fast sampling-free uncertainty quantification scheme based on moment networks, with calibrated error bars obtained through conformal prediction to ensure coverage guarantees. Finally, we benchmark PnPMass against model-driven and data-driven mass-mapping techniques. PnPMass achieves a performance close to that of the currently best deep-learning methods while offering fast inference. It converges in just a few iterations, and it requires only a single training phase, regardless of the noise covariance of the observations. It therefore combines flexibility, efficiency, and reconstruction accuracy while delivering tighter error bars than existing approaches, making it well suited for upcoming weak-lensing surveys.