Probabilistic Residual Learning for Online Recommendations

Sequential recommender systems typically infer user preferences through single-pass encoding of interaction histories without iterative refinement, relying on increasingly deep architectures to capture complex patterns. In this work, we revisit sequential recommendation from a recursive inference perspective: can user preferences be modeled as a persistent latent state that is recursively refined? We propose RecRec (Recursive Recommendation), a lightweight model that maintains a compact latent state and updates it through a shared recursive module conditioned on interaction evidence. Unlike prior recursive models, RecRec introduces an evidence-anchored correction mechanism that stabilizes refinement by grounding each update in the original interaction context, preventing semantic drift during deep recursive reasoning. Experiments on three benchmark datasets under standard evaluation protocols show that RecRec matches or outperforms state-of-the-art sequential, graph-based, and reasoning-enhanced recommenders while using only 3.9M to 14M parameters. Ablation studies demonstrate that both recursive refinement and the evidence-anchored correction gate contribute significantly to performance, highlighting the effectiveness of recursive latent inference as a scalable alternative to deeper or language-based architectures. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/RecRec-6B67/README.md.

Predictive models trained on observational data often fail to generalise to the distributions they encounter when deployed, especially when the training data is a product of the system being optimised. Recommender systems are a canonical example: they are trained on interaction logs confounded by the deployed policy, past user behaviour, and platform filtering. As a result, the training distribution differs substantially from the candidate distribution scored at serving time, a gap that makes offline metrics unreliable predictors of online performance. We address the distribution shift problem with a method motivated by causal representation learning (CRL). We propose an information-theoretic disentanglement criterion and prove that its optimum depends only on the causal components of the input. We then derive a tractable variational lower bound that makes the criterion optimisable from finite observational data alone. The scope of our method is narrower than that of much of the CRL literature, in that we target better generalisation under distribution shift, not full identification of all latent causal factors. This narrower target is what makes the method practical, requiring only the existing confounded logs, applying to any standard supervised model, and adding no inference-time cost. Our headline evaluation is an A/B test with millions of users on Spotify, applied to a production ranker for personalised playlist generation. A capacity-matched CRL variant performed on par offline but delivered substantial online gains in listener engagement. Complementary evidence on the public KuaiRand recommendation dataset and a synthetic benchmark with known causal structure shows the same pattern: offline parity with baseline, gains under distribution shift. Across all three settings, adding our causal disentanglement objective yields meaningfully better out-of-distribution generalisation.

Algorithmic news personalization in regional markets often fails because modern deep learning models require massive interaction data while real-world news has a short Time-to-Live (TTL < 48 h) and shallow article pools. This structural item cold-start deprives collaborative filtering of the data needed for robust modeling. This paper presents Project Kairos, a framework that bridges this data scarcity through a contextual online learning approach (LinUCB). To ensure numerical integrity for continuous operation, Kairos replaces error-prone Sherman-Morrison inversions with direct rank-1 updates of Cholesky factors. This preserves the positive definiteness of the covariance matrix even under ill-conditioned data scenarios. Simultaneously, Matryoshka Representation Learning (MRL) integration addresses inference latency. Empirical evaluations based on the Tagesschau API demonstrate that exploiting semantic redundancy in the feature space achieves a 4.85-fold efficiency gain without significantly compromising ranking precision. Kairos thus provides a blueprint for high-performance recommendation systems in resource- and data-constrained environments.