Cycle-Consistent and Uncertainty-Aware Neural Surrogates for Tokamak Edge Plasmas
Authors: Abdourahmane Diaw, Sebastian De Pascuale, Jae-Sun Park, Ivan Paradela Perez, Jeremy D. Lore, Stefan Dasbach
Organizations: Fusion Energy Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37932, USA · DIFFER - Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research, De Zaale 20, 5612 AJ Eindhoven, the Netherlands
The boundary and divertor plasma govern how a tokamak exhausts power and particles, setting heat fluxes, target conditions, and the onset of detachment. Predicting these quantities is essential for operating current and future devices, but edge simulations that resolve them are too slow for parameter scans, optimization, or real-time control. Machine-learning surrogates offer a fast alternative, yet most are forward-only: they cannot recover input parameters from observations or assess the reliability of their predictions. We introduce a cycle-consistent neural surrogate for edge plasmas, combining a conditional U-Net forward model with an optimization-based inverse method built on the frozen forward network. The forward model maps five control parameters to two-dimensional plasma-state fields on the SOLPS-ITER mesh; the inverse method enforces consistency between forward and inverse predictions, a self-supervised quality check needing no ground-truth labels at inference. An ensemble of multilayer perceptrons also predicts electron temperature and density profiles at the outboard midplane and divertor targets, with uncertainty estimates that flag where more simulations are needed. The forward model achieves normalized root-mean-square errors below 2.6% and Pearson correlations above 0.95 for all fields. Cycle-consistency regularization raises the average cyclical R2 from 0.59 to 0.99 without degrading forward accuracy and enables recovery of the core fueling rate; all five control parameters are recovered with Pearson r≥0.97. A k-d tree warm start yields a database completion rate above 95%, versus roughly 30% outright failures when cold-started. With about 4×106 parameters, the model produces full 2D predictions in milliseconds, five to six orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling real-time control, parameter scans, uncertainty analysis, and digital twins.
Fast surrogates for tokamak boundary-plasma simulation are typically deterministic regressors mapping a global operating point to a flattened vector of cell values. Near the divertor detachment transition the steady state is not reliably single-valued. A point estimate must average over qualitatively different plasma states, and it arrives with no statement of confidence. Moreover, the flattened vector representation discards the geometric structure of the SOLPS-ITER mesh. This work addresses both problems. We unroll the curvilinear mesh into three fixed-size image tensors whose layout preserves cell adjacency and inverts exactly, letting a convolutional network act on the geometry without loss of information. A conditional flow matching model, well suited to highly sensitive systems, is then trained on this representation. The result is an efficient, scalable surrogate that captures multiple plausible outcomes even at sensitive operating points. Along a gas-puff scan, the predictive distribution splits into a hot and a cold mode across an early regime transition. A further check on synthetic data with an injected bifurcation of known size confirms the model recovers both branches rather than their average.
Gabriele Gianuzzo, Stefan Dasbach, Fleur Hendriks +2
Neural surrogates promise large speedups over classical solvers for physical dynamics but fail silently at sharp dynamical events such as shocks, fronts, and contact. We present hybrid neural world models for physical dynamics: a recipe for training and deploying multi-horizon surrogates in physical state space, where a single network with continuous horizon conditioning is trained with direct supervision against textbook reference solvers to predict any future state at horizon T in one forward pass. Although no part of the training data, loss function, or architecture supervises discontinuity location, the trained surrogate encodes it implicitly, recoverable from its forward passes alone as a per-trajectory error map that concentrates on shocks, fronts, and contacts, and stays small elsewhere. The map is competitive with or better than standard label-free baselines including deep ensembles, learned error heads, gradient-magnitude indicators, and locally-adaptive conformal prediction, while using only a single trained network and requiring no calibration set or governing-equation knowledge. The recipe supports two operating points. Mode 1 runs the surrogate alone for maximum throughput, with same-hardware CPU speedups of 26x to 72x against textbook solvers on the PDE environments. Mode 2 uses the error map to gate a reference-solver fallback, deferring uncertain trajectories and roughly halving the surrogate's residual error at the default operating point. The recipe applies without modification across reaction-diffusion, compressible Euler, and rigid-body collision dynamics.
In this work, we develop an inverse Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) framework to infer the dependence of the scrape-off layer (SOL) perpendicular heat conductivity on plasma density and temperature, κ⊥(n,T). The method combines radial profile measurements of electron density and temperature with the residual of a reduced one-dimensional SOL transport equation, so that the inferred conductivity is constrained by both the measurements and the underlying transport model. Three neural networks are trained simultaneously: two reconstruct the temperature and density profiles as functions of the radial coordinate and transported power, while a third represents the effective conductivity as a function of the local density and temperature. The framework is first validated using synthetic data generated from a prescribed conductivity function, allowing the inferred κ⊥(n,T) to be compared directly with the ground truth. The model recovers the imposed functional dependence with errors below 10% in the data-constrained region. Bootstrap resampling is shown to provide a practical indicator of prediction reliability and consistency. A scan in the number of plasma profiles used for training and the number of radial measurement positions per profile identifies a practical trade-off between reconstruction accuracy and data availability. Finally, the method is applied to an experimental dataset from the TJ-II stellarator obtained with the helium-beam diagnostic. This exploratory application provides an initial estimate of the effective SOL conductivity and illustrates the potential of inverse PINNs for extracting transport information from plasma edge measurements.
J. Gallego (Departamento de Tecnología, CIEMAT, Spain) +23