Cautious optimism for deep parameterized quantum circuits

Training parameterised quantum circuits (PQCs) on quantum hardware is bottlenecked by the measurement cost of gradient estimation, which under the parameter-shift rule scales linearly in the number of trainable parameters and dominates the total shot budget of training at scale. In this work, we propose a framework of forward gradient estimators for PQCs, based on the forward mode of automatic differentiation, that yields an unbiased estimator of the gradient by averaging a freely tunable number of random directional derivatives and recovers SPSA, random coordinate descent, and the parameter-shift rule as limiting cases, with no ancilla qubits or controlled-gate overhead. We prove that stochastic quantum forward gradient descent converges under standard assumptions, with an explicit second-moment expansion that interpolates between the single-direction extreme of SPSA and the full-gradient extreme of parameter-shift. Within this framework we derive QUIVER (Quantum Iterative V-adaptive Estimator Rule), an adaptive optimiser for parameterised circuits whose update rule follows from a closed-form minimum measurement-cost allocation. We show numerically that forward gradients train Hamming-weight-preserving orthogonal quantum neural networks with up to 60 qubits and 1770 parameters on the ECG5000 and MNIST datasets orders of magnitude more efficiently than the parameter-shift rule. We also demonstrate that our proposed QUIVER optimiser can outperform iCANS and gCANS measurement-frugal optimisers on optimisation problems using the quantum approximate optimisation algorithm and quantum simulation with the variational quantum eigensolver.

As Quantum Machine Learning (QML) transitions toward practical implementation, the field faces a critical architectural bottleneck that challenges the fundamental assumptions of classical statistical learning theory. In classical deep learning, increasing model capacity typically risks overfitting. However, this study advances a counter-intuitive paradigm: unstructured contemporary QML architectures suffer from a profound state of quantum underfitting, driven by the "expressivity-trainability paradox." We demonstrate that the vast Hilbert space capacity of Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQCs)-traditionally chased as the source of quantum advantage is the direct mathematical cause of Barren Plateaus (BPs), where gradient landscapes become exponentially flat. By synthesizing recent breakthroughs in Dynamical Lie Algebras (DLAs) and Geometric QML, we establish a comprehensive framework linking the algebraic dimension of circuit generators to their optimization dynamics. Furthermore, we empirically validate this framework on a non-linear binary classification task, illuminating a uniquely quantum manifestation of the bias-variance tradeoff: while unstructured architectures achieve near-perfect training accuracy via unscalable parameterization (quantum overfitting), embedding group-theoretic geometric priors acts as a structural regularizer. By restricting the DLA growth to a polynomial regime, our symmetry-preserving approach sacrifices raw memorization capacity to guarantee scalable, gradient-rich training landscapes, offering a robust roadmap for "Trainability-by-Design" in scalable quantum neural networks.

Parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) are increasingly used as policies and value functions in quantum reinforcement learning, yet it remains unclear when and why quantum policies generalize. We give a PAC-Bayesian account in which generalization is governed not by the raw number of circuit parameters, but by the effective dimension of the Fisher geometry induced by the circuit. This quantity is inflated by entanglement, making entangling connectivity an independent axis of complexity.In controlled experiments that fix the number of trainable rotations and vary only entanglement, we find that circuits with larger Fisher effective dimension exhibit larger train-test gaps, while parameter count is a weak predictor. The resulting bound acts primarily as a ranking certificate: it correctly orders circuits with identical parameter count, which parameter-counting bounds cannot do. We validate this mechanism across supervised classification, quantum contextual bandits, and value-function generalization, where entangled circuits consistently generalize worse than non-entangled circuits of equal parameter count, with gaps shrinking as sample size increases.Our strongest evidence comes from low-variance decision models, including single-observable classifiers, value heads, and one-step policies. In end-to-end multi-step policy learning, entanglement effects remain statistically significant but high return variance leaves the full ordering only partially resolved. Partial-correlation analysis shows that Fisher effective dimension screens off entangling pattern, and controls for training accuracy, readout, and optimizer rule out major optimization confounders. The effect also persists on an IBM Heron quantum processor under real noise. Overall, our results reframe quantum policy design around an entanglement--generalization trade-off rather than expressivity alone.