CARNet Cycle-Conditioned Core Aggregation and Redistribution for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Reliable periodic patterns serve as a fundamental basis for accurate multivariate time series forecasting. However, existing methods either implicitly extract periodicity through complex model architectures (e.g., Transformers) with high computational overhead or overlook the intrinsic phase-amplitude coupling when modeling periodic components explicitly. To address these issues, we propose a novel Cycle-aware Phase-Amplitude Modulation Network (PAMNet) that explicitly decomposes periodic patterns into complementary phase and amplitude components. The core innovation lies in its dual-branch modulator, featuring dedicated learnable embeddings for phase positioning and amplitude modulation. The phase branch employs cyclical embeddings to capture phase-dependent mean shifts, while the amplitude branch models intensity variations to adapt to changes in variance. A lightweight modulator with element-wise fusion efficiently combines these components, enabling explicit modeling of their interactions without complex attention mechanisms. Extensive experiments on twelve real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance through its novel phase-amplitude decoupling mechanism, offering a new perspective for cyclical modeling in time series forecasting.

Multivariate time series forecasting presents unique challenges because future variables often co-evolve under shared system dynamics. While existing studies mainly focus on cross-variable dependencies in historical observations, dependencies among future values are much less explored. Specifically, modern forecasting models largely follow the Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm, generating multi-step forecasts with point-wise objectives that do not explicitly constrain cross-variable structure. In this work, we show that the DF objective is mismatched in the presence of cross-variable and lagged dependencies, revealing an objective gap. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{C}ross-\textbf{V}ariable \textbf{Loss} (CvLoss), a plug-in structural regularizer that constrains forecast residuals on a cross-variable graph. CvLoss penalizes inconsistent edge-wise residual differences over forecast patches, encouraging consistency across both synchronous and asynchronous interactions. Our experiments show that CvLoss consistently improves competitive forecasting models, outperforms representative learning objectives, and is compatible with a variety of forecasting backbones.

Multivariate time series forecasting is critical in many real-world systems, and thus modeling cross-channel dependencies is essential. Although existing methods improve overall accuracy by enhancing representations and cross-channel interactions, it remains challenging to reliably capture inter-variable dependencies under specific conditions. We observe that dependencies in real data are often state-dependent and noisy; in such cases, dense interactions can amplify spurious correlations and lead to representation over-smoothing, which may yield unreliable predictions in certain scenarios. Motivated by this, we propose MS-FLOW, a sparse-bottleneck framework that explicitly models inter-variable interaction as capacity-limited information flow. Specifically, MS-FLOW replaces fully connected communication with selective sparse routing, retaining only a few critical dependency paths and injecting cross-variable signals under a strict communication budget, thereby suppressing redundant connections and spurious-correlation propagation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MS-FLOW learns more reliable multivariate correlations, achieving state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on 12 real-world benchmarks while producing fewer yet more reliable dependencies, shifting multivariate forecasting from "more interaction" to "more effective interaction".