From Seasonality to Semantics: Benchmarking a Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting System for Roadblocks in Bolivia

Nationwide road-incident forecasting is a systems problem before it is a modeling problem. A usable service must connect historical incident archives, historicalandliveweather,nationalroadgeometry, offline model training, tile generation, web serving and runtime handoff. This paper presents Road Risk Monitor, a U.S.-wide road-safety stack that combines a nationwide H3 baseline trained on FARS fatal-crash data with a road-segment forecasting pipeline trained from TIGER/Line geometry and US-Accidents events, then serves predictions through live APIs, raster tiles, JSON road tiles, and a public web application.

Rapid growth in social media has transformed global communication by enabling fast information exchange, but it has also accelerated the spread of misinformation. Fake news, manipulated content, and provocative narratives are increasingly linked to social unrest, political instability, and mob violence. Incidents in South Asia and elsewhere demonstrate how false information disseminated via platforms such as Facebook and WhatsApp can trigger real-world harm, often spreading faster than fact-checking efforts can respond. To address this challenge, this chapter presents a multilingual, multimodal Natural Language Processing (NLP) framework for early detection of misinformation and violence-prone dynamics. A fused dataset of 138,256 Bangla and English samples was created by combining multiple benchmark datasets. The framework integrates XLM-RoBERTa for multilingual text representation, CLIP for visual embedding, and a multi-head attention mechanism for multimodal fusion, enhanced with auxiliary features such as sarcasm and geospatial metadata. Experiments on a stratified 30% subset achieved 98% test accuracy with strong precision and recall. The outcomes show the efficacy of multimodal approaches in early misinformation detection and highlight the added value of geospatial signals for anticipating real-world escalation.

Incorporating news into time series forecasting is appealing because news can reveal abrupt exogenous events that historical values alone cannot recover. However, existing LLM-based news-forecasting pipelines face two practical limitations: relevant news articles often exceed the model's context window, and iterative retrieval of supplementary news is typically unguided, leading to redundant updates and slow convergence. We address these issues with a novel framework that combines importance-aware news compression and process-level retrieval supervision. First, we train an importance reward model that estimates the forecasting utility of each article and uses this signal to allocate compression budgets during sequential pairwise fusion, preserving informative content within a fixed context limit. Second, we introduce a process reward model (PRM) that ranks multiple supplementary-news candidates conditioned on the current error profile and the history of previously selected articles, replacing one-shot blind retrieval with quality-controlled selection. Both components are trained offline using historical data with ground truth; inference uses the frozen filtering logic and compression modules without any reflection loop. Experiments on finance, energy, traffic, and bitcoin forecasting benchmarks show that our method improves prediction accuracy over strong baselines, significantly reduces the number of refinement iterations compared to the iterative baseline, and remains effective when relevant articles span thousands of tokens.